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Q4 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 13.2mArctic Paper delivered Q4 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 13.2m, compared to our estimate of PLN 25m. However, note that the reported figure included an energy refund of ~PLN 40m, i.e clean Paper EBIT was PLN -27m vs. our clean estimate of PLN -14m. Weak demand and increased Asian competition have put pressure on prices, which impacted the Paper profitability. An announced 8-10 percent paper price increase aims to restore margins, though H1 2026 demand visibility remains weak. Pulp EBITDA was somewhat softer than expected at PLN -74m vs. our estimate of PLN -70m. Regarding the pulp business, the quarter was characterised by lower pulp prices in USD combined with a stronger SEK, as well as high wood costs. A write-down of finished goods inventory linked to lower pulp prices weighed on earnings by ~SEK -35m. In addition, the annual maintenance shutdown at Vallvik Mill impacted results by ~SEK 70-80m. Lower wood costs ahead, but markets still challengingPulpwood prices are dropping 25-30% across Scandinavia as high inventories and low demand pressure the market. This should provide some cost relief. Paper markets are helped by 10% supply cuts in '25-'26e, but with (too) low demand the utilisation rate is only 75-80%. We need 3mt more cuts to reach the historical average. The pulp market has had its short-term issues, but Suzano has hiked hardwood prices seven times, or +26%. Rottneros' exposure mainly lies within softwood and CTMP, which has lagged hardwood. However, SCA's recent USD 100/t NBSK price hike is good news for Rottneros, which could also see prices up in '26. Fair value range of SEK 17-50The company is trading at an EV/CE multiple of ~0.45x, which is ~40% below its historical average. We have applied three valuation methodologies and arrive at a fair value range of SEK 17-50. |