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Q4 resultsThe report was largely in line with our expectations, but lower Q4 opex put EBIT 7% above our estimate. Engine equivalents came in at 2.6m, down 16% y-o-y on 57% and 14% declines in North American commercial and passenger vehicle production, respectively (-0.53m EEs), while European commercial vehicle production grew 20% (+0.15m EEs). Quarterly equipment sales of SEK 4.6m brought the yearly total to SEK 9.8m, thus concluding another year with above-average installation sales. Estimate changesThe company highlighted proactive cost reductions of SEK 3.8m in '25, and forecasts another SEK 5m in '26 due to the retirement of its Technical Director on 31 Dec 2025 and the upcoming retirement of CEO Steve Dawson at the AGM in May. Both replacements were employed throughout '25. This is a shade better than we had estimated, and we therefore raise '26e-'27e EBIT by 2-3%. Outlook and valuationManagement sees signs of market recovery in '26, with European commercial vehicle order books up 20% y-o-y in Q4 and freight demand improving in North America, while developments concerning tariffs and emissions regulations have stabilised. With several high-volume production programmes set to start in the coming three years following record-high installation sales, SinterCast's growth should outpace the market. Furthermore, management now expects to reach the 6m EE milestone in '29 and the 8m milestone in '31 (monthly peak annualised production). Other noteworthy news in the quarter was that Ford cancelled the electric version of its F-150 pick-up, and Ram decided not to proceed with its launch of an electric version, further diminishing the threat from electric alternatives in SinterCast's second most important sector after commercial vehicles. |