Eolus - Impairments weighed on Q4, but Q1 improves

• Q4 EBIT in line with pre-announcement (SEK -313m)
• Impairments of SEK 238m, portfolio size down to 15.8 GW (25.3 GW)
• Completes sale of 127 MW Roccasecca BESS project

Q4 in line with pre-announcement

Eolus reported Q4 EBIT of SEK -313m (SEK -75m excl. impairments), in line with the pre-announced figures. The quarter was dominated by impairments of SEK 238m and a sharp reduction in the project portfolio to 15.8 GW from 25.3 GW, mainly driven by offshore wind (-7.8 GW). The sale of the Fågelås, Dållebo and Boarp onshore wind projects (88 MW) had a limited earnings impact overall, which we view as a consequence of a weaker transaction market.

Estimate changes and outlook

Due to Eolus’ recent impairments and the updated project portfolio, we have revised our portfolio assumptions, resulting in EBIT revisions of SEK +52m for '26e (including updated estimates for the Roccasecca and Fageråsen sales) and SEK -39m for '27e. We now have 1,247 MW in our forecasts. Heading into 2026, management describes market conditions as hesitant despite solid underlying fundamentals; BESS activity is progressing at a good pace, while wind transactions are taking longer. We expect this to weigh on near-term wind project margins.

Roccasecca and Fageråsen

Although ’25 was a soft year for Eolus, two near-term positives stand out heading into Q1’26. On Friday 13 January, Eolus announced that it has completed the sale of the 127 MW Roccasecca BESS project, including transfer of the SPV and total cash proceeds (incl. cost reimbursements) of ~USD 66.9m. Revenues will be recognised in full in Q1’26; we estimate invested capex of ~SEK 200m and a project margin of ~SEK 400m. In addition, the customer’s final investment decision for the 189 MW Fageråsen onshore wind project triggers an instalment payment to Eolus in Q1’26.