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Q4 in brief: Better across all marketsOur impression is that Svedbergs Group's Q4'25 report is better than Factset consensus estimates overall. The Group reports net sales of SEK 557m, for organic growth of 10% y-o-y. This is +5% vs ABGSCe and +4% vs cons. Looking closer at the three largest segments, Svedbergs grew 19%, Roper Rhodes by -4% (+6.5% org.) and Thebalux by 6% (11% org.), which means the deviation to our sales estimate was driven by Svedbergs and Thebalux. All segments delivered positive org. growth and all except Roper Rhodes deliered an improved margin y-o-y. Roper Rhodes' margin decline was driven by a positive margin impact from freight provisions in the comparable quarter, and was expected. Gross margins grew -50bp y-o-y to 47.2%, the freight provisions explain the decline in full according to our understanding. Despite the softer gross margin, EBITA margins expanded 40bp y-o-y, for EBITA of SEK 87, +10% vs ABGSCe and +7% vs cons. This is partly due to a strong margin development in the Svedbergs brand, which improved 5pp y-o-y. Svedbergs' board has proposed a dividend per share of SEK 2, just shy of 50% of '25 EPS, which can be compared to our DPS forecast of SEK 1.75 (based on a 50% payout ratio as well). Outlook: Looks forward to a gradually better marketIn the Q3 report, Svedbergs Group said the current market climate remained uncertain but manageable, and we assessed that the message was of a delayed recovery driven by this uncertainty. In Q4, it says that while the market outlook is still uncertain, it looks forward to a gradual market improvement during the year. The share is trading at 11x-10x '26e-'27e EV/EBITAThe share has returned 8% L3M, and is now trading at 11x-10x our '26e-'27e EV/EBITA vs a historical trading range of 7x-11x NTM. The Q4 report moves consensus' '25e EBITA by 2%. Svedbergs Group hosts a conference call and Q&A today at 10:00 CET, a dial-in link can be found here. |
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