Nexam Chemical - Entering the next phase of Recycling

• Q4 figures in line with pre-announcement
• We cut '26e-'27e sales by 6-5%, EBIT positive in '27e (prev. '26e)
• Targeting 2x Recycling sales in '26e vs. '25

Q4 results

Nexam reported sales of SEK 43m (-11% y-o-y, -4% q-o-q), in line with pre-announced figures. The company witnessed a temporary build-up among its largest customer in High Temperature, impacting the quarter by SEK -4.5m. However, Reactive Recycling (~20% of sales in Q4'25) continues to be the clear growth driver, expanding by 250% y-o-y in Q4 and ~3x in FY'25 vs. FY'24. The company now has 26 paying customers in the segment and is targeting doubled sales in 2026 vs. 2025. Due to the lower-than-expected sales, EBIT was also lower at SEK -4m (vs. -2.5m LY).

Estimate changes

We lower '26e-'27e sales by 6-5% and '26e-'27e EBIT by SEK 9m and 8m, respectively, on the back of the report. We forecast the company to grow sales at a CAGR of +13% in '25-'27e and to reach positive EBIT in '27e (previously '26e).

Rights issue to accelerate Recycling scale-up

Our long-term view of the company remains largely unchanged. In December '25, Nexam announced a fully guaranteed rights issue of SEK 51.8m (before costs of ~SEK 6.6m), with proceeds earmarked to accelerate the Recycling segment through initiatives such as expanding commercial reach and strengthening customer support. Management estimates an obtainable market of ~EUR 70m (on the assumption of 5% penetration in Europe and 2% elsewhere) vs. Recycling sales of ~EUR 2.2m in '25, implying substantial potential sales upside. The share has returned -32% L3M (vs. peers at -21%, OMXSALLS at +5%) and is currently trading at 1.1x-0.9x '26e-'27e EV/Sales.