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Overview of ClavisterToday at Investor Days, we hosted Clavister's CEO John Vestberg at ABGSC. Clavister is a tech company that produces and sells cybersecurity solutions for physical and virtual environments. Its product is "dual-use", packaged into hardware and delivered to end-markets such as the civilian sector (largest segment, ~80% of sales), telecom, energy and defence. The company also provides identity and access solutions, for e.g. Försäkringskassan. It is worth noting that this is not a competitor to BankID, but rather the underlying infrastructure used by this type of institution. Key takeaways from the presentationAs one might expect, the largest competitors are US players such as Palo Alto and Fortinet. However, as Mr. Vestberg highlighted, the European market is starting to shift, with increasing interest in alternative European solutions such as Clavister. Regarding the business model, the company has transitioned from a more project-based model to a recurring-revenue model in recent years, resulting in lower risk and more stable revenues. Also worth mentioning are Clavister's annual churn of ~3% and annual price increases of ~5%, supporting long-term stability. On the defence side, the Netherlands contract is the only one currently reflected in the P&L, while the remaining secured contracts will be recognised in '26e-'29e. The backlog amounts to ~SEK 400m as of Q3'25. Looking ahead to 2026We continue to view Clavister as a cybersecurity tech company with stable recurring revenues, supported by its largest end-market in the civilian sector. The company also has deferred tax assets of ~SEK 700m, meaning it will not pay taxes for several years. As mentioned in our fast comment of 30 November (link), with estimated ND/EBITDA of ~1.4x in Q4'25e (from 4.7x in Q3'25) and a new capital structure that lowers debt and improves interest terms, Clavister now has a stronger foundation to support long-term growth. |