Ogunsen - Carrying capacity for when demand turns

• An organic decline of 3% in Q3
• We cut sales estimates by 4-2% for '26e-'27e
• Positioned for a market recovery in '26e

Q3 numbers: low utilisation to weigh on results

Ogunsen reported sales of SEK 100m, a decrease of 3% y-o-y. Consulting revenues were flat y-o-y at SEK 94m (94% of total sales), while recruitment declined 30% y-o-y, to SEK 6m. The quarter was marked by continued low utilisation, although the number of consultants on assignment increased y-o-y, which we believe marks an early sign of improving demand. EBIT came in at SEK 6m, with a 6% margin. The company continues to carry excess capacity, maintaining a larger workforce than current demand supports. The average headcount declined by 5% y-o-y to 344 FTEs in Q3, which might reflect natural attrition rather than active downsizing.

We cut estimates and expect market tailwinds in '26e

Due to the recent change of analyst and subsequent review of estimates, we cut sales estimates by 4-2% for '26-'27e and cut EBIT by ~20% for the same period. Looking at '26e, we believe Ogunsen will have a sales increase of 3%, driven by better calendar effects and better utilisation. We believe the company will reach EBITDA margins of 9%, supported by operational leverage.

Early signs of momentum

Consulting demand strengthened through the quarter, while recruitment remains soft. Net FTEs declined y-o-y and we expect net recruitment to remain muted in Q4 as well. That said, we believe the market will start stabilising in H1'26, which should lead to positive organic growth for the company. We also see this as cyclical in the market, rather than structural. Ogunsen is trading at a 10x EV/EBIT for '26e, and has a net cash position, which provides a solid foundation as market conditions improve.