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Soft Q3, cautious near-term outlookBTS' Q3 report left us with a bittersweet taste, as organic growth did not pick up, FY guidance was further reduced and the company highlighted a softer end to the year in the (so far) strong European segment. The negative Q4 growth comments in North America are already reflected in expectations, and are therefore not an incremental data point for us. On the KPI side, however, BTS shared that it is starting to see improvements – especially in the North American market – with sales meetings, win ratios and customer interactions clearly up y-o-y. These will likely start to pay off in projects from Q1'26e. The same goes for Europe, where BTS highlighted that it expects to see a comeback to double-digit organic growth in Q1'26e, supported by the order book and pipeline of planned projects. 2026e therefore looks to be a potential growth recovery year, although the comments about "fewer employees in 2026 vs. 2025" could limit some growth given that consulting is a "people's business". On the other hand, it could mean that the main growth drivers are increased sales/employee and utilisation, with gains from AI use cases and internal efficiencies alongside overhead cost reductions, which should support the margin. Negative revisions on the back of lowered guidanceAs a result of aforementioned drivers and a softer end to the year, we cut our 2025-27e sales estimates by 2-6% and adj. EBITA by 6-8%. 6.4x 2026e EV/EBITAWe expect a soft end to the year for BTS, but expect a recovery to 6% organic growth in 2026e alongside the adj. EBITA margin expanding to 13.1% (11.7% 2025e) for 15% adj. EBITA growth. The share is currently trading at 6.4x 2026e EV/EBITA on our updated estimates. We estimate a 2025e DPS of SEK 3.55 (50% payout ratio), which would be a 42% cut vs. 2024. |