Studsvik - FMWT leads the way in a mixed quarter

• EBIT adj. SEK 7.2m (9.4m), vs. ABGSCe of SEK 14m
• We lower '26e-'27e EBIT adj. by 5-6%

• Positive sales and margin trend in FMWT continues

Q3 results

Q3 sales were SEK 206m, +2% y-o-y, while EBIT adj. was SEK 7.2m (9.7m), -50% below our expectations of SEK 14m. EBIT included a one-off gain (SEK +6m) from a repayment related to fraud in Q3'24. Despite results coming in below our estimates, FMWT continued to demonstrate solid y-o-y growth, which we view positively. We expect this positive momentum to carry through in the coming quarters. Scandpower sales were impacted by seasonal variations, leading to weaker results in Q3, but we see no change in underlying demand, and we expect licence sales to trickle into Q4. Decommissioning continues to face tougher competition, impacting margins, which were 2.4pp lower y-o-y. We expect the margin pressure to remain in the near-term, and we estimate an EBIT margin of 4.2% for FY'25e (vs. 5.8% in '24).

Estimate changes and outlook

We lower our '26e-'27e sales and EBIT adj. by 3% and 6%, respectively, on the back of the report. The star of the show continues to be FMWT, while Decommissioning is facing tougher conditions. To strengthen the business area, the company announced that Karl Thedeen (CEO), will temporarily assume responsibility of the segment as the company has an ongoing strategic and organisational review in the segment.

Long-term demand intact

Although lead times are long, we expect Studsvik to benefit from the new wave of global investments in the nuclear field for many years to come. Studsvik, Blykalla, and evroc completed discussions this quarter regarding a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). They will jointly explore the possibility of developing Sweden's first nuclear-powered data centre at Studsvik’s licenced site in Nyköping. The share has returned +43% L3M (vs. peers at +7%, OMXSALLS +7%) and is currently trading at 34x-23x '25e-'27e EV/EBIT.