INVISIO - Low Q3 deliveries mean large backlog support

• Solid Q3 orders, miss on deliveries point to stronger growth ahead
• EBIT -21% '25e, +7-9% '26e-'27e
• Tough comp in Q4e but order backlog will support

Underlying momentum remains

On the back of the Q3 profit warning, Invisio's full report was in line with preliminary figures, while we highlight the 57% gross margin as somewhat weaker than expected (ABGSCe 60.5%) due to FX and tariff costs. We expect the gross margin to steadily improve from here, to 59% in Q4e and 61% in 2026e. The underlying order intake was solid, and the profit warning was entirely a result of delivery delays. We expect to see some lost ground recovered in Q4e, but most of it in 2026e for which we raise our organic growth assumption to 25% (16%), on the back of the strong order backlog of SEK 887m in Q3 (up 26% vs Q2). The two recent framework agreements with the US Coast Guard and the Netherlands MoD support Invisio's strong product portfolio, and we expect these to generate order intake in the coming quarters.

Estimates cut for 2025e, raised for 2026e-27e

As a result of the Q3 delivery delays and the weaker gross margin, we cut 2025e EBIT by 21%, while we expect deliveries to catch up ahead and raise 2026e-27e EBIT by 7-9%, also fuelled by the two recent framework agreements.

Quarterly volatility, but solid over time

Volatility remains high in Invisio, but we are encouraged that the underlying broad-based order intake continues, and that is the most important forward-looking metric, in our view. On our revised estimates, the share is trading at 57x 2025e EV/EBIT (depressed earnings) and 33x 2026e (somewhat boosted earnings).