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Further margin & CF improvements in Q4Coor delivered 4% y-o-y organic growth and the margin improved (+0.4pp y-o-y to 4.5%), rendering 12% adjusted EBITA growth. The cash conversion also improved, which eased the pressure on the balance sheet (gearing decreased from 2.9x in Q2 to 2.7x). We expect continued strong cash flow in Q4, resulting in a gearing of 2.5x, which is back to its preferred range (2.0-2.5x). We think this in turn allows the company to either raise dividends again or initiate a share buyback programme in 2026. A payout in line with those of 2022-2023 would imply a yield of 11%. On the other hand, growth in Sweden and Denmark remains challenging due to a few contract losses, but management said contract wins in Norway should offset the declines. Moreover, half of the organic growth in Q3 was due to extraordinary variable volumes in Norway, which we expect will normalise from Q4. We therefore expect somewhat slower organic growth in the coming quarters (1-2%). No material estimate changesWe make limited estimate changes; despite slightly higher EBITA than we expected in Q3, most of the beat came from Norway, while we expect Denmark and Sweden to weigh more on growth from Q4e and into 2026e. This leads us to cut '26e-''27 sales by 1% and adj. EBITA by 1-2%. Even so, we expect high adj. EBITA growth in Q4e (+59%) and H1'26e (+11%) from margin improvements. EBITA multiple back below 10x for '26eThe share reacted negatively on the Q3 numbers. This combined with relatively limited estimate changes means that the valuation has decreased. The share now trades at 9x EBITA on 2026e, vs our service peer group at 10x, while we expect Coor to deliver a lease adjusted FCF yield of 11% vs peers at 9%. We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 35-80 per share. |