Lumi Gruppen - Supportive trading update

• Solid autumn intake
• Sonans back on track
• Fair value range of NOK 14-25

Solid autumn intake

Today, Lumi published a trading update for its '25 autumn intake. Intake seems solid, with ONH revenues guided up 14% y-o-y for the AY 25/26e and Sonans revenues guided up 6-8% y-o-y. In total, Lumi guides for ONH revenues of NOK 323-326m and Sonans revenues of NOK 198-202m, which implies AY'25/26e revenues of 525m at midpoint. On adj. EBIT, management expects ONH to deliver a margin ahead of the AY'24/25 margin of 21.4%, and we pencil in 25%. Regarding Sonans, adj. EBIT is guided above 9% in AY'24/25, and we pencil in 12%. We raise our AY'25/26e revenue/EBIT estimates by 2%.

Sonans back on track

The trading update was a positive read for Sonans. The last couple of years have been challenging, with Sonans revenues declining ~15% p.a. on average. However, the AY'24/25 was likely a turning point, with 5% y-o-y growth. Today, Lumi guides Sonans revenues up 6-8%, and we estimate that the trough has passed for Sonans. The 6-8% guidance is above the company's target of ~5% revenue growth p.a., and the company expects the adj. EBIT margin to move towards its financial ambition of ~15% (~9% in AY '24/25). We argue that these targets are achievable, mainly driven by a reduction in job vacancies, lower grade inflation, and a structural undersupply of higher education admissions places.

Fair value range of NOK 14-25

We derive a fair value range of NOK 14-25. A peer valuation points to NOK 11-21/sh, while a DCF points to ~NOK 27/sh. Lumi is trading at a '26e/'27e EV/EBIT of ~13x/10x and a P/E of ~18x/13x, while enjoying strong earnings growth and relatively high barriers to entry.