CoinShares - Solid operating performance

• Crypto prices have rebounded
• Solid quarter, adj. EBIT beat vs. consensus on lower costs
• '25e adj. EV/EBIT below 4x with '25e-'27e dividend yield of 5%-8%

Underlying costs continue to surprise positively

CoinShares reported a Q1'25 adj. EBIT that was 6% above FactSet consensus. The sequential drop in AUM was ~24%, driven partly by a broad decline in crypto prices and partly by net outflows. This appeared to be primarily driven by better underlying cost, which surprised positively once again. The company changed its reporting currency from GBP to USD, making comparisons to consensus less meaningful. With that said, readers should note that we have restated the historical, reported figures from GBPm to USDm (based on historical FX rates) while we are awaiting official, translated historical figures in USD. Therefore, the historical figures in our tables are subject to change as well.

Minor estimates on net outflows

In order to make the best possible comparison on a like-for-like basis, our previous estimates have been restated to USD, using average GBP/USD rates during the relevant periods. Following the report as well as a change of analyst, we cut adj. EBIT by ~6-4% for '25e-'26e on a like-for-like basis. While net outflows governed a meaningful portion of the AUM decline, crypto prices have rebounded rather sharply in the last month — something that could warrant net inflows. We have also incorporated a slightly lower cost base, as Coinshares continues to display strong cost discipline.

2025e-'26e adj. EV/EBIT of nearly 4x

CoinShares is currently trading at a '25e adj. EV/EBIT of nearly 4x. The company is trading ~75% below asset management peers on EV/EBITDA in '25e-'26e. We adjust our fair value range to SEK 63-123 (62-119) on the back of our estimate revisions.