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Infrea - Paving it forward

15 juli 2026

<a id="bm-comp-f154187f-3da9-4b80-ba84-58f20480a174" name="bm-comp-f154187f-3da9-4b80-ba84-58f20480a174" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="f154187f-3da9-4b80-ba84-58f20480a174" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Different stories depending on segment...</li><li>...overall better than we expected...</li><li>... but share price is pegged to Netel</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-59c91b3e-87a1-401c-8593-62da8ff3ac79" name="bm-comp-59c91b3e-87a1-401c-8593-62da8ff3ac79" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="59c91b3e-87a1-401c-8593-62da8ff3ac79" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Diverging segments with Paving carrying the beat</h3><p>Note, Infrea sold its Water &amp; Sewage segment during Q4'25, and we have the segment in the comparable numbers for 2025. Infrea's Q2 was slightly better than expected at group level with sales +1% vs ABGSCe and EBITA +11% vs. ABGSCe but with sharply diverging segment performance. The beat was driven entirely by Paving Services (PS), where sales rose +29% y&#8209;o&#8209;y to SEK 239m, while Land &amp; Construction (L&amp;C) fell &#8209;9% to SEK 376m on the absence of larger contracts and tougher comps. EBITA in PS rose to SEK 33m (+SEK 11m / +47% y-o-y) on the momentum but was held back by ~SEK 4m of one-off remediation costs at Duo Asfalt. L&amp;C EBITA fell ~SEK 5m to SEK &#8209;5m on distorted comps (Q2'25 included Mikaels Gr&#228;vtj&#228;nst at &#8209;SEK 3m and unusually high volumes).</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Now in the high production season</h3><p>We raise '26e-'28e EBITA by 10-15% on the reported beat and solid momentum in PS on both order intake and delivery. Bitumen was volatile in the quarter, but Infrea managed the pass-through well, which we view as a strength. Duo Asfalt is commissioning a new plant in Aug/Sep, which affected Q2, but should improve in H2. In L&amp;C we expect the north to remain a headwind, but believe most write-downs are behind us as Infrea focuses on catching issues earlier and there have been fewer write-downs in recent years. On that basis, gradually improving margins support SEK 58m EBITA in '26e and a 19% EBITA CAGR over '25-'28e.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Infrea is pegged to Netel</h3><p>For now, Infrea's share price is pegged to Netel's, and we have removed our fair value range. The merger's exchange ratio is 17 new Netel shares for every 4 Infrea shares, i.e., 4.25 Netel shares per Infrea share. Netel closed today at SEK 3.1 per share, implying a value of SEK 13.2 per Infrea share. Netel reported on 10 July and the share is down ~6% since.</p></td></tr></table>

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