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Medicover - No symptoms of surprise in Q2

22 juli 2026

<a id="bm-comp-c20425ca-d089-4a44-b73e-34814796ae33" name="bm-comp-c20425ca-d089-4a44-b73e-34814796ae33" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="c20425ca-d089-4a44-b73e-34814796ae33" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q2 broadly in line across most line items</li><li>'26e-'28e adj. EBITDA -0.7%/-0.4%/-0.4% on weaker Romania</li><li>FVR unchanged at SEK 190-270 on minor estimate revisions</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-ad12af02-0f71-469d-9c49-c8b3b1dbb994" name="bm-comp-ad12af02-0f71-469d-9c49-c8b3b1dbb994" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="ad12af02-0f71-469d-9c49-c8b3b1dbb994" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Broadly in line, Romania weighs</h3><p>Revenue grew 7.3% y-o-y to EUR 640m, with org. growth accelerating to 11.8% from Q1's 10.3%, though still below last year's 13.9%. The group adj. EBITDA margin rose 20bps y-o-y to 17.1%. Healthcare Services' (HS) EBITDA margin was 18.4% (18.6%), coming off a strong Q2'25 when HS EBITDA was up 41%. Romania and Polish hospitals were the main drag, while India delivered a strong quarter (+23%, ~40% LCCY). Continued improvement in Polish sports/wellness also contributed positively. Diagnostic Services expanded its margin to 18.8% (+110bps). Growth was broad-based, with FFS and special immunology in Germany, blood-drawing point expansion in Poland, and Synlab integration in Romania, plus a richer test mix and SEE synergies. Romania's political instability and elevated inflation look like being a lasting headwind for HS rather than just a tough quarter, though management remains confident, pointing to six straight quarters of margin gains. Cash generation has stayed strong throughout, with OCF up 28% y-o-y and leverage steady at 2.9x.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Only minor estimate changes</h3><p>As the quarter was broadly in line, we make only small adjustments to our estimates. We lower group adj. EBITDA by 0.7%/0.4%/0.4% for '26e-'28e, concentrated in Healthcare Services. We now assume Romania's pressures will persist a little longer, and trim our 2027e organic growth estimate for HS accordingly.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">FVR unchanged at SEK 190-270</h3><p>We leave our FVR at SEK 190-270 given the limited scale of our revisions. The share is currently trading at 10.4x/8.8x EV/EBITDA for '26e/'27e, compared with a peer group of developed-market healthcare providers at a median of 7.7x/7.2x EV/EBITDA for '26e/'27e, and a developing-market peer group at 32.2x/26.4x. We estimate a 5.8-7.2% FCF yield for '26e/'27e and a dividend yield of 1.2-1.4%.</p></td></tr></table>

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