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Medicover - Steady as she goes

13 juli 2026

<a id="bm-comp-81ce4423-30f4-4d58-9f8d-ed8ad029bfcc" name="bm-comp-81ce4423-30f4-4d58-9f8d-ed8ad029bfcc" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="81ce4423-30f4-4d58-9f8d-ed8ad029bfcc" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q2'26 numbers due on 22 July at 07:45 CET</li><li>Minor estimate changes, margins unchanged</li><li>Fair value range kept at SEK 190-270</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-7b1117e1-e789-43c2-8c08-8e33e0ee415c" name="bm-comp-7b1117e1-e789-43c2-8c08-8e33e0ee415c" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="7b1117e1-e789-43c2-8c08-8e33e0ee415c" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q2'26 expectations</h3><p>For Q2, we expect Medicover to perform broadly in line with Q1'26. In Poland and Romania, government funding pressures are creating a near-term headwind in the publicly funded segment. However, we expect volumes to recover over time through a higher FFS mix. For HS, we forecast org. growth of 10.5% and an EBITDAaL margin of 13.0%. In Germany, we expect the lab business to remain stable despite tighter public funding reimbursement. For DS, we forecast org. growth of 9% and an EBITDAaL margin of 13.8%. We expect India to keep building momentum as new hospital capacity ramps up, although growth should moderate from a very strong Q1'26. In June, Medicover confirmed discussions with KKR regarding a potential sale of its 66.9% stake in the Indian business (USD 1bn+), while continuing to pursue an IPO in parallel. No transaction is certain. In total, we forecast sales of EUR 641m, driven by ~10% org. growth, and adj. EBITDA of EUR 111m (17.3% margin).</p><h3 class="bm-h3"><strong>Minor estimate changes</strong></h3><p>We make minor downward revisions to our estimates into the Q2 results, reflecting a slightly more cautious near-term view on the publicly funded segment in Poland and Romania. Margins are left unchanged across both divisions and at the group level, and our long-term assumptions remain intact. We believe the ongoing FFS mix shift across both HS and DS supports continued margin improvement and operational leverage as the network matures.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Fair value range unchanged at SEK 190-270</h3><p>We leave our fair value range unchanged at SEK 190-270. The range is derived from the trading multiples of two peer groups &#8211; one with healthcare providers in developing countries and one in developed countries &#8211; alongside a DCF. The range corresponds to a '26e EV/EBITDA of 9x-12x.</p></td></tr></table>

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