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DistIT - A quarter of change

11 augusti 2025

<a id="bm-comp-1f1c7f8e-24e8-48fa-87b6-d97967715e5b" name="bm-comp-1f1c7f8e-24e8-48fa-87b6-d97967715e5b" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="1f1c7f8e-24e8-48fa-87b6-d97967715e5b" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Market conditions remain unfavourable for Aurdel</li><li>Septon divestment carries largest impact on estimates</li><li>'26e EV/sales of 0.4x at 1% EBIT margin</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-e09a305f-0671-4629-8a96-0eaafddbdb63" name="bm-comp-e09a305f-0671-4629-8a96-0eaafddbdb63" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="e09a305f-0671-4629-8a96-0eaafddbdb63" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Pre-announced Q2'25</h3><p style="text-align:left;">The company has pre-announced its Q2'25 figures in conjunction with an additional (fully guaranteed) rights issue of SEK 106m. Preliminary sales of SEK 244m and an adj. EBITA of SEK -30m imply an organic decline of ~18% and an adj. EBITA margin of around -12%. From an organic point of view, we note that other market participants, such as Dustin, have been subject to those same, poor market conditions. In the case of the Aurdel segment, we believe that a return to organic growth is more likely in '26e than in late '25e. This notion is supported by the fact that comps are getting increasingly easier and that DistIT is now allowed to increasingly reinvest cash into its operating business.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Estimate changes</h3><p>We cut '25e-'27e sales by approximately a third, primarily due to the divestment of most of the Septon segment. However, we also incorporate a somewhat more negative near-term outlook to reflect an underlying performance in line with recently announced operating updates from the company. From a margin perspective, the Septon divestment is only slightly accretive, but more importantly, it allows DistIT to reinvest the proceeds to business areas that can grow profits faster. For '26e-'27e EBIT, this means that we expect SEK 11-34m, from which DistIT could grow as it is able to reinvest earnings now. The EPS revisions are primarily due to the recent recapitalisation efforts.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Implied valuation</h3><p>Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at a '26e EV/sales of ~0.4x given a 1% EBIT margin. This is in line with the average EV/sales level at which Dustin has traded in the last three years, despite DistIT's achievable margin being at least 2x higher than that of Dustin.</p></td></tr></table>

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