<a id="bm-comp-902b94d0-cc3e-4110-a0bf-f87cc1c61435" name="bm-comp-902b94d0-cc3e-4110-a0bf-f87cc1c61435" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="902b94d0-cc3e-4110-a0bf-f87cc1c61435" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Margin upside building into H2</li><li>We cut EBITDA by 9-4% for '25e-'27e</li><li>Trading at ~22x '26e EV/EBITDA</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-368ca129-dc12-4a09-9f48-199cd122e2d5" name="bm-comp-368ca129-dc12-4a09-9f48-199cd122e2d5" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="368ca129-dc12-4a09-9f48-199cd122e2d5" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Firewall strength continues, defence set to scale</h3><p>Clavister will release its Q2'25 report on 21 August. We expect SEK 53m in sales, implying y-o-y growth of 19%, with a ~1pp FX headwind from EUR-exposed sales. We expect growth in Q2 to be driven primarily by continued solid momentum in the civil firewall business, while we expect defence orders will ramp up in H2'25. We estimate EBITDA of SEK 6m (SEK 5m), corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 12% (12%), held back by higher opex from increases in sales and marketing costs, IAM integration and a sales mix more tilted towards hardware, which impacts gross margins negatively in the short term. Looking at H2, even though we expect higher defence deliveries to hold back the gross margin, we still expect the EBITDA margin to improve materially due to scale effects, rendering ~70% EBITDA growth y-o-y. We expect EBIT to remain negative in Q2 (SEK -5m) but turn positive in H2.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Estimate changes</h3><p>We keep our sales estimates flat, but we cut EBITDA by 9-4% for '25e-'27e due to higher opex (mainly sales and marketing). We now forecast 2026 EBIT of SEK 25m, increasing to SEK 45m in 2027 from a 14% sales CAGR '26e-'27e (not including any material new unannounced orders) and EBIT margins improving from 9% in 2026 to 15% in 2027.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Final thoughts</h3><p>The recent partnership with SAAB reflects strong momentum and increased confidence in Clavister's positioning within European defence. As this is not yet reflected in our estimates, it could support higher sales forecasts going forward. On our revised estimates, Clavister is trading at a ~35-17x '25e-'27e EV/EBITDA. We look forward to EBIT potentially turning positive for the first time in H2, which is an important milestone for the company.</p></td></tr></table>