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Skolon - Norwegian contract to boost volume growth

11 augusti 2025

<a id="bm-comp-39c35eed-7cec-4edd-8022-8029395cf2c4" name="bm-comp-39c35eed-7cec-4edd-8022-8029395cf2c4" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="39c35eed-7cec-4edd-8022-8029395cf2c4" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q2'25e organic sales growth of 45% y-o-y</li><li>We raise '25e paying users by 2%</li><li>FVR of SEK 30-45 reiterated</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-4f9cffb3-dafd-49e0-885c-607fb4645ff4" name="bm-comp-4f9cffb3-dafd-49e0-885c-607fb4645ff4" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="4f9cffb3-dafd-49e0-885c-607fb4645ff4" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">What to expect in Q2'25</h3><p>We expect organic growth of 45% and sales of SEK 57m in the second quarter. In late June, Skolon announced a new four-year contract in Norway, adding ~50k new users with an estimated annual sales addition of SEK 15m. We expect a 24% increase in paying users; however, we assess that the new users from the Norwegian contract will be included in the Q2 figures, but that the digital tools sales from the contract will start materialising in Q3. As such, Q2e sales will be primarily driven by previously existing users purchasing new digital tools, seasonally resulting in a lower gross margin. We expect a GM of 26% (23% less capitalised work) and EBITDA of SEK -1.3m. We note that EBITDA continues to improve on a y-o-y basis (adj. EBITDA margin of -2% in Q2'25e vs. -4% in Q2'24).</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Minor positive estimate changes on sales mix</h3><p>We raise '25e sales and EBITDA by 1% and 7%, respectively. On the new Norwegian contract, we increase our estimate for '25e paying user growth by 2%, leading to 1% lower '25e ARPPU. Keeping our GM and opex estimates relatively flat, the volume increase supports a slight increase in earnings for '25e. However, we have trimmed our GM assumptions for '26e-'27e as we expect a higher share of sales to stem from partner tools, which dilutes the GM, leading to a 9-7% cut in EBITDA.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Implied valuation</h3><p>Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at '25e-'27e EV/Sales of 4x-2x, which is 40% lower than the peer group median, while Skolon has ~2.5x higher sales growth. Moreover, Skolon is trading at '25e-'27e EV/Gross profit of 11x-5x, which is above peers (peer median 5x-4x EV/GP). That said, we expect Skolon to grow its gross profit at a rate of 41% per year, whereas peers are expected to grow 13% per year, according to FactSet. We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 30-45.</p></td></tr></table>

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