<a id="bm-comp-eb0fd16d-03a3-4716-825a-95eb0cb4d3d6" name="bm-comp-eb0fd16d-03a3-4716-825a-95eb0cb4d3d6" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="eb0fd16d-03a3-4716-825a-95eb0cb4d3d6" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q2 report due on Thursday, 14 August</li><li>Sales and margin downgrades in Germany weigh on estimates</li><li>Trading at 13-10x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-3412231e-1a5c-4d6a-8d3d-76fb83b5e802" name="bm-comp-3412231e-1a5c-4d6a-8d3d-76fb83b5e802" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="3412231e-1a5c-4d6a-8d3d-76fb83b5e802" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q2e: Germany stabilising, slightly better US gross margin</h3><p>We expect Ferronordic to report Q2 sales of SEK 1,111m, up 1% y-o-y, and EBIT of SEK 24m, for a margin of 2.1% (-0.3%). At the segment level, we expect price pressure amid a weaker market to continue weighing on the gross margin, although we anticipate an improvement compared to Q1 as the negative mix effect will not necessarily be repeated. Meanwhile, in Germany, we expect to see fairly stable earnings q-o-q, with the company saying it is now done adjusting the cost base. Finally, on cash flow, we note that Q1 was the first time in eight quarters where net debt came down sequentially. Reducing the leverage further should remain a near-term priority for Ferronordic.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Sales and margin downgrades in Germany drive revisions</h3><p>We lower our '25e-'27e EBIT by 10-6% (SEK 12m-13m), putting us 8-1% below the current FactSet consensus. This is driven by further sales and margin downgrades in Germany, which has been weighing on the estimate trend for some time now, as we have had to delay our projected recovery timeline.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Trading at 13-10x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT</h3><p>The share is trading at 13x '26e EV/EBIT, which goes to 10x for '27e. This compares to our distributor peer group that trades at 13-12x. As we have highlighted previously, however, Ferronordic's main issue in the near term is the SEK 1.8bn net debt position (as of Q1'25), which we think will take some time to reduce using internal cash flows, considering that the German business is struggling with profitability. Taking a long-term perspective, we think that once the leverage has come down Ferronordic can continue expanding its US operations in line with its strategy.</p></td></tr></table>