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I-tech - Resilient growth ahead despite FX headwinds

08 augusti 2025

<a id="bm-comp-bafe8983-3088-4da9-bee2-5a0e125943d2" name="bm-comp-bafe8983-3088-4da9-bee2-5a0e125943d2" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="bafe8983-3088-4da9-bee2-5a0e125943d2" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q2e sales of SEK 52m, 22% y-o-y, adj. EBIT of SEK 17m (12m)</li><li>FX headwinds, but we expect customer growth to remain solid</li><li>Minor estimate changes ahead of report</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-e397e193-4310-4a2e-acac-bb3d0bcb0bd2" name="bm-comp-e397e193-4310-4a2e-acac-bb3d0bcb0bd2" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="e397e193-4310-4a2e-acac-bb3d0bcb0bd2" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q2 expectations</h3><p>We anticipate a negative FX impact in Q2 from the depreciation of the USD/SEK, but we believe underlying business momentum remains strong. We estimate Q2 sales of SEK 52m, +22% y-o-y (+35% organic, -13% FX). On EBIT, we forecast EBIT adj. of SEK 17m (SEK 12m) for a margin of 34% (28%). We estimate one-off costs related to the EU process of SEK 1.8m, roughly in line with previous quarters. This implies lease-adj. FCF of SEK 7m (SEK 4m).</p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Minor estimate changes</h3><p>We only fine-tune '25-'27 estimates. During the quarter, I-Tech announced that it had received a one-year extension to its current approval for Selektope in the EU. This was to ensure there is enough time to carry out all required actions for the ongoing re-registration process. We still expect a decision recommendation to come towards the end of '25.</p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Fair value up to SEK 80-200</h3><p>We find it promising that new customers are continuing to move forward with I-Tech despite the ongoing regulatory process. Furthermore, the company continues to successfully diversify its customer base, with PPG reporting volume growth of over 300% in Q1 (albeit from a lower base), while also maintaining growth with its largest customer, CMP. At the beginning of the year, I-Tech signed a supply and licence agreement with a major Asia-based company. We expect product launches under this agreement during '25, which should contribute to further growth. <font color="#212529">The stock is trading at 19x-10x</font> <font color="#000000">EV/EBIT on '25e-'27e, and 23x-15x P/E, i.e. ~50-30%</font> <font color="#212529">below the peer median.</font> We raise out fair value range to SEK 80-200 to incorporate scenarios in which I-Tech is able to grow profitability at a higher rate.</p></td></tr></table>

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