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Arctic Paper - Rottneros: Impairment of SEK 140m

07 augusti 2025

<a id="bm-comp-f1b97458-1de5-4ffc-9920-b7f3dde18037" name="bm-comp-f1b97458-1de5-4ffc-9920-b7f3dde18037" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="f1b97458-1de5-4ffc-9920-b7f3dde18037" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li><font color="#000000">Rottneros reports SEK 140m impairment ahead of Q2</font></li><li><font color="#000000">Challenging markets for Rottneros and Arctic Paper</font></li><li><font color="#000000">Far-sighted is better than myopic</font></li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-ea1479ac-92b6-459e-9644-72ddf2b5786a" name="bm-comp-ea1479ac-92b6-459e-9644-72ddf2b5786a" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="ea1479ac-92b6-459e-9644-72ddf2b5786a" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Rottneros reports SEK 140m impairment ahead of Q2</font></h3><p><font color="#000000">Rottneros has announced an impairment of SEK 140m (~PLN 53m) related to fixed assets at its Rottneros Mill, citing persistently weak market conditions for CTMP that have curtailed the mill&#8217;s operational capacity. In our Q2 preview, we highlighted that the weaker pulp market and continued high wood costs will limit the pulp EBIT, and our bridge pointed to a clean Q2e pulp EBIT of PLN -25m. Rottneros has announced SEK 35-40m annual cost savings, with effect from H2. Furthermore, the first signs of lower wood costs have emerged (down 10% in Norway for H2), which could provide some tailwinds for Rottneros from Q4'25/Q1'26.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;"><font color="#1B2634">Challenging markets for Rottneros and Arctic Paper</font></h3><p style="text-align:left;"><font color="#212529"><font color="#000000">The pulp market has suffered from increased uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, and European softwood and hardwood prices are down ~10% since March, while Chinese prices are down ~15%. Regarding CTMP, Rottneros is positioned at the far right of the global cost curve, i.e margins ar<font color="#000000">e</font></font></font> <font color="#000000">structurally more pressured.</font> <font color="#212529"><font color="#000000">Paper markets are helped by 9% supply cuts in '25-'26, but with slow demand, we see the utilisation rate reaching only 75-80% in '25e. We need +3mt more cuts (12%) to reach the historical average of ~88%. Note that paper prices fell 2% m-o-m in July. Price hikes were initially announced for Q2, but we understand that these hikes did not go through, as the market balance is soft</font>.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;"><font color="#000000">Far-sighted is better than myopic</font></h3><p style="text-align:left;"><font color="#000000">The market will remain challenging for some time, but far-sighted is better than myopic. <font color="#000000">The pulp market has its short term issues, but</font> hardwood prices are already below the marginal producers' cash cost (typically not long-lasting)</font><font color="#000000">. The group will also likely see some tailwinds once lower wood prices takes hold. Rottneros has completed a SEK 300m rights-issue and Arctic has a leverage of 0.7x, i.e there should be headroom for now.</font> <font color="#212529"><font color="#000000">Arctic paper is trading at an EV/CE multiple of ~0.6x and a '26e-'27e EV/EBIT ~15% below core peers. We have applied three valuation methodologies, and arrive at a fair value range of SEK 25-70. The fair value range implies an EV/CE range of 0.4x-1.0x.</font></font></p></td></tr></table>pagebreak <a id="bm-comp-88b9e94b-d237-4841-b2f9-8054dc5aabf2" name="bm-comp-88b9e94b-d237-4841-b2f9-8054dc5aabf2" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><a id="bm-comp-692d54f2-be6b-4af6-a052-01c8eef1e25e" name="bm-comp-692d54f2-be6b-4af6-a052-01c8eef1e25e" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="88b9e94b-d237-4841-b2f9-8054dc5aabf2" style="vertical-align: top; width:50.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-b0b22cbc-2bdc-4ada-ad7e-f249273e72f2" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">CTMP prices</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="b0b22cbc-2bdc-4ada-ad7e-f249273e72f2" bm-img-original-height="419" bm-img-original-width="760" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/89503_d9545c11-bde6-4681-96d6-4c844be08668.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-b0b22cbc-2bdc-4ada-ad7e-f249273e72f2" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/89503_d9545c11-bde6-4681-96d6-4c844be08668_733.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/89503_d9545c11-bde6-4681-96d6-4c844be08668.svg" width="363" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, RISI</td></tr></table></td><td bm-component-id="692d54f2-be6b-4af6-a052-01c8eef1e25e" style="vertical-align: top; width:50.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-63918bea-74ee-49ac-a32c-c8a7b16c4a31" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Global CTMP cash cost curve</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="63918bea-74ee-49ac-a32c-c8a7b16c4a31" bm-img-original-height="432" bm-img-original-width="760" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/89503_51e14246-3a27-4417-bb76-ab0dfdc7e284.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-63918bea-74ee-49ac-a32c-c8a7b16c4a31" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/89503_51e14246-3a27-4417-bb76-ab0dfdc7e284_733.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/89503_51e14246-3a27-4417-bb76-ab0dfdc7e284.svg" width="363" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, RISI</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

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