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Impact Coatings - No major machine deliveries in Q2e

05 augusti 2025

<a id="bm-comp-3aa5b189-0b07-44c3-9c3e-250dd8da2daa" name="bm-comp-3aa5b189-0b07-44c3-9c3e-250dd8da2daa" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="3aa5b189-0b07-44c3-9c3e-250dd8da2daa" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Report out 22 August</li><li>'25e-'26e sales cut by 19-15% on lower expected machine deliveries</li><li>3y deal signed to supply Coating Services for PEM electrolysers</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-14cd2267-22be-4c63-a262-f66d11d51a22" name="bm-comp-14cd2267-22be-4c63-a262-f66d11d51a22" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="14cd2267-22be-4c63-a262-f66d11d51a22" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q2 expectations</h3><p>With no machine orders announced during the quarter, we expect Q2 to be another soft quarter for Impact Coatings. We estimate sales of SEK 11m (vs. SEK 32m LY), solely driven by Coating Services and Aftermarket. The ongoing hesitancy within the hydrogen sector has led to delayed customer decision-making processes, affecting near-term revenue visibility. On EBIT, we forecast SEK -12m (SEK -5m) and we forecast the company to end the quarter with a cash balance of SEK 20m (SEK 86m), which can be compared to the R12m FCF lease adj. of SEK -72m.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Estimate changes</h3><p>We cut '25e-'26e sales by 19-15% and EBIT by SEK 12m, respectively, due to lower expected machine deliveries amid a persistently weak hydrogen market. We now forecast two machine deliveries for '25e (previously three) and four for '26e (previously five). Although there were no significant machine orders during the quarter, we find it promising that the company's Coating Services segment is continuing to gain traction and during the quarter the company press-released that it has signed a three-year coating service supply agreement with a European PEM electrolyser supplier. The deliveries are expected to begin in the summer 2025, and revenues are expected to grow over time with the customer's manufacturing ramp-up.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Long-term view unchanged</h3><p>Our view on the long-term potential of the company is largely unchanged. The global hydrogen market remains sluggish, but we believe that the continued substantial investments in the Chinese hydrogen market present a significant growth opportunity for Impact Coatings. The company is currently trading at 4.0x-2.7x '25e-'27e EV/Sales on our estimates (vs. peers at 0.9x-0.5x).</p></td></tr></table>

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