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BTS Group - Q2 PW not out of the blue

05 augusti 2025

<a id="bm-comp-6bbcbe5f-f21a-42d8-9f5b-f38f33d80ab3" name="bm-comp-6bbcbe5f-f21a-42d8-9f5b-f38f33d80ab3" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="6bbcbe5f-f21a-42d8-9f5b-f38f33d80ab3" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>North American weakness behind yesterday's Q2 PW</li><li>FY guidance cut more than feared</li><li>Estimates likely down 10-15%, stock closed -12% yesterday</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-67117a81-a539-4ff8-b14e-c594e120f24b" name="bm-comp-67117a81-a539-4ff8-b14e-c594e120f24b" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="67117a81-a539-4ff8-b14e-c594e120f24b" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Late Q2 PW, but not entirely unexpected</h3><p>As we argued for in our preview (<a data-bm-trackable="false" href="https://abg-portal.bluematrix.com/links2/html/93966c9f-57c8-497b-bb3f-39e8687e314a?firmId=45691" target="_blank">link</a>), North America has likely been tough in Q2 for larger consulting projects, and the FY guidance was at risk. Yesterday morning, BTS sent out a PW with sales -1% vs FactSet consensus and EBITA -20% (-14% vs ABG), as well as adjusting its FY EBITA guidance from &#8220;better than 2024&#8221; to &#8220;worse than 2024&#8221;, while we feared a cut to &#8220;in line with 2024&#8221;. EBITA declined -23% y-o-y in Q2, vs 0% y-o-y in Q1. BTS blames underperformance in the North American market and business, and acts immediately by doing organisational changes. CEO Jessica Skon was previously Head of North America, so she clearly knows the market, the business and the organisation well. Having been with BTS for more than 20 years, Mrs Skon is hopefully making the right changes to get the Group's largest business unit back on track again. BTS also said that the other segments (Europe and Other markets) as well as the recently acquired Boda in the US are performing both revenue and EBITA growth, which is a positive sign. FX has also had a negative effect on earnings growth y-o-y and impacts the new FY guidance.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Estimates likely down 10-15%</h3><p>As a result of the Q2 PW and FY guidance cut, we expect consensus to reduce EBITA estimates by 10-15%, as consensus expected a 4% growth in EBITA in 2025e. The share closed -12% yesterday, and it will likely take some quarters to get back full trust again as the North American underperformance does not only seem to be temporary in Q2. The Q2 report is still scheduled for 22 August. The share closed at 9.0x 2025e EV/EBITA yesterday before estimate changes (FactSet consensus).</p></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-38fba65d-3a3d-4165-8571-0b761360ca68" name="bm-comp-38fba65d-3a3d-4165-8571-0b761360ca68" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="38fba65d-3a3d-4165-8571-0b761360ca68" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-824e7aba-b359-41fc-b8ca-64a25e1fd05c" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Q2 deviation</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="824e7aba-b359-41fc-b8ca-64a25e1fd05c" bm-img-original-height="131" bm-img-original-width="762" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/89448_dea17fa1-1549-42d5-af0c-11cf79929bf5.svg" bm-img-width-hint="52.41%" id="bm-id-824e7aba-b359-41fc-b8ca-64a25e1fd05c" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/89448_dea17fa1-1549-42d5-af0c-11cf79929bf5_381.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/89448_dea17fa1-1549-42d5-af0c-11cf79929bf5.svg" width="381" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-94a4b320-604a-43e3-86c7-49913c9d7966" name="bm-comp-94a4b320-604a-43e3-86c7-49913c9d7966" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="94a4b320-604a-43e3-86c7-49913c9d7966" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-902cd9e5-6764-4e6e-9b1f-7ab3b6ad26fa" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">2025 guidance change</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="902cd9e5-6764-4e6e-9b1f-7ab3b6ad26fa" bm-img-original-height="131" bm-img-original-width="921" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/89448_975908cd-f96a-475f-ad29-1a62737eab79.svg" bm-img-width-hint="63.27%" id="bm-id-902cd9e5-6764-4e6e-9b1f-7ab3b6ad26fa" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/89448_975908cd-f96a-475f-ad29-1a62737eab79_460.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/89448_975908cd-f96a-475f-ad29-1a62737eab79.svg" width="460" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

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