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Midsona - Fire in Spain plant weighs on estimates

10 juli 2025

<a id="bm-comp-28d3ae98-2d84-4e9a-bb2d-ff17ebcc2dca" name="bm-comp-28d3ae98-2d84-4e9a-bb2d-ff17ebcc2dca" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="28d3ae98-2d84-4e9a-bb2d-ff17ebcc2dca" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>'25e-'27e adj. EBIT down 8-2%</li><li>Incident in Spain weighs on near-term momentum</li><li>Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of ~8x</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-37e03f67-7660-4966-8d97-a01b34012dc1" name="bm-comp-37e03f67-7660-4966-8d97-a01b34012dc1" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="37e03f67-7660-4966-8d97-a01b34012dc1" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">What to expect in Q2'25</h3><p style="text-align:left;">We anticipate 2.5% y-o-y organic growth in Q2'25, implying sales of SEK 908m and EBIT of SEK 21m, for a margin of 2.3%. The organic growth is partly due to light comps (3% in Q2'24), but also due to a late Easter, which carries a slightly negative impact for Midsona because of the positioning of its offering (health &amp; organic foods).</p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Estimate changes</h3><p style="text-align:left;">We cut '25-'27e sales by ~1% and adj. EBIT by 8-2%, respectively. The primary driver behind the estimate revisions in the near term is the fire at Midsona's production plant in Spain, which contributes ~SEK 75m in annual revenues. In our updated estimates, we assume that this incident will adversely impact sales by SEK 18-19m per quarter for three quarters. However, given that Division Europe South carries a lower gross margin, we assume a somewhat better mix. Nevertheless, this is clearly negative for '25e-'26e earnings. We continue to believe that selective M&amp;A is more likely than buybacks because the industry is fragmented and ripe for consolidation. With respect to timing, a realistic option for a return to M&amp;A is likely when the leverage ratio reaches the range of 1-1.5x (net debt/EBTDA), which we expect to be achieved in late '25e or early '26e.</p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;">Implied valuation</h3><p>Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~8x NTM EV/EBITA, which is 25% below current peer multiples. We note that peers, in turn, are trading ~25% below the 10-year historical median of ~14x NTM EV/EBITA.</p></td></tr></table>

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