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Ovzon - Orders are still piling up

08 juli 2025

<a id="bm-comp-f4103beb-083a-4e61-85ad-c62482bd786d" name="bm-comp-f4103beb-083a-4e61-85ad-c62482bd786d" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="f4103beb-083a-4e61-85ad-c62482bd786d" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>SEK 72m follow-up order (Terminals) from Swedish FMV</li><li>Deliveries start in Q3</li><li>Could add ~10% to '25e EBIT estimates</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-59250cc0-3e6b-4e44-b630-af0daf27700f" name="bm-comp-59250cc0-3e6b-4e44-b630-af0daf27700f" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="59250cc0-3e6b-4e44-b630-af0daf27700f" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">SEK 72m follow-up order from FMV</h3><p>Ovzon has started Q3 in style, announcing a SEK 72m order for satellite terminals from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) today. This is a follow-up to the SEK 1.04bn breakthrough order with the same customer in May 2025, which was primarily related to SATCOM revenues (~80% of the contract), while the remaining ~20% was related to terminals. The terminals are also compatible with Ovzon-3; the May contract was for leased services, whereas FMV also has a separate Ovzon-3 contract.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Should drive positive estimate revisions</h3><p>According to the press release, deliveries under the SEK 72m contract will begin in Q3. At first glance, we estimate that the order could increase cons' 2025e sales by ~5-10%, assuming the entire order is booked in H2'25e. Traditionally, we have assumed a gross margin of 30&#8211;35% for terminal sales. Assuming a similar metric for this order would imply an addition of 10&#8211;15% to 2025e EBIT.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">SATCOM demand is high</h3><p>Recent order momentum suggests that demand for Ovzon's services is high (and is currently accelerating). Furthermore, we emphasise that with only ~40% utilisation in Q2e (ABGSCe), a significant proportion of the company's satellite, Ovzon-3, remain unused, suggesting further potential for Ovzon-3-related orders. Near-term estimate visibility is comparably high, and the stock is trading at 35x-18x EV/EBIT on our unrevised 2025e-2026e estimates.</p></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-7a31f003-3c84-4a0c-9525-b716d1e95a43" name="bm-comp-7a31f003-3c84-4a0c-9525-b716d1e95a43" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="7a31f003-3c84-4a0c-9525-b716d1e95a43" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-3768b1e9-eda8-4df9-b23a-8dec77064df9" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Sales, quarterly (SEKm)</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="3768b1e9-eda8-4df9-b23a-8dec77064df9" bm-img-original-height="388" bm-img-original-width="793" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/88746_6299ed07-e75e-47aa-bbae-7147827a8fe2.svg" bm-img-width-hint="95.46%" id="bm-id-147fd219-e303-436c-b072-a789ff39d471" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/88746_6299ed07-e75e-47aa-bbae-7147827a8fe2_694.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/88746_6299ed07-e75e-47aa-bbae-7147827a8fe2.svg" width="694" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-195a7f06-76e0-4c66-8f7d-cf0d4d85f241" name="bm-comp-195a7f06-76e0-4c66-8f7d-cf0d4d85f241" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="195a7f06-76e0-4c66-8f7d-cf0d4d85f241" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-e4fab206-21e7-454e-9e13-42a5e7133329" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Sales breakdown (SEKm)</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="e4fab206-21e7-454e-9e13-42a5e7133329" bm-img-original-height="373" bm-img-original-width="793" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/88746_48ace9c4-07fe-4ee4-b64a-f3bf20f0a6b6.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" draggable="false" id="bm-id-ca641272-c5e8-48b7-9076-2a36c0892715" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/88746_48ace9c4-07fe-4ee4-b64a-f3bf20f0a6b6_733.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/88746_48ace9c4-07fe-4ee4-b64a-f3bf20f0a6b6.svg" width="727" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-9d838f1b-5799-43d3-aa9e-5e5a725f66af" name="bm-comp-9d838f1b-5799-43d3-aa9e-5e5a725f66af" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="9d838f1b-5799-43d3-aa9e-5e5a725f66af" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-7f82c1a6-1e64-444f-968f-e1fc4b6307b3" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Ovzon-3 assumptions (ABGSCe)</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="7f82c1a6-1e64-444f-968f-e1fc4b6307b3" bm-img-original-height="318" bm-img-original-width="694" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/88746_f9ddcd1c-a39b-4aef-ae9f-aaf9805a921c.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-0c10850d-b24c-4831-a4a5-0ef8f2670baf" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/88746_f9ddcd1c-a39b-4aef-ae9f-aaf9805a921c_694.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/88746_f9ddcd1c-a39b-4aef-ae9f-aaf9805a921c.svg" width="726" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

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