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North Media - Q4 investment return better than expected

14 mars 2025

<a id="bm-comp-e2e854e9-1e81-494e-a928-ae58714ac15f" name="bm-comp-e2e854e9-1e81-494e-a928-ae58714ac15f" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="e2e854e9-1e81-494e-a928-ae58714ac15f" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q4: Headline figures pre-announced last week...</li><li>...but return of DKK 7m better than ABGSCe of DKK -23m</li><li>No signs of BeKey divestment, expect limited consensus revisions</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-7ea94a11-0ff7-4e3e-86fa-149a90c90ca5" name="bm-comp-7ea94a11-0ff7-4e3e-86fa-149a90c90ca5" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="7ea94a11-0ff7-4e3e-86fa-149a90c90ca5" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">DKK 7m Q4 return on portfolio better than ABGSC's DKK -23m</h3><p>North Media released its '24 annual report, but Q4 headline figures (sales and EBIT) were already announced last week, i.e. no material surprises. However, the company saw a DKK 7m return on its investment portfolio in Q4, materially better than our estimate of DKK -23m (likely driven by undisclosed transactions during the quarter). It was already known that the BoD will propose to pay no dividends for '24.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">BeKey under review, but imminent divestment looks unlikely</h3><p>The FY'25 guidance was also released last week, expecting revenues of DKK 1,280m-1,337m (vs. ABGSCe 1,316m) and EBIT of DKK 25m-60m (ABGSCe DKK 58m). However, segment-specific guidance has now also been released, with ABGSC estimates generally coming in at the low end of the Last Mile (FK + SDR) guidance, but above the Digital Services guidance. Despite significant challenges in SDR, the company says it "<em>remains confident that its long-term plan is the right one</em>". Management confirms its previous expectation of automated packing to be fully implemented in H2'25. Although management says it will review the structure, business foundation, and market approach of the loss-making BeKey segment, the wording does not suggest to us that a divestment or discontinuation is imminent (although we have argued for the rationale of this for a long time).</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Expect limited consensus estimate revisions</h3><p>As both the Q4 numbers and FY'25 group guidance was pre-announced last week, we expect only limited consensus estimate revisions (although segment-specific estimates may change somewhat based on the segment guidance). North Media will host a conference call at 13:00 CET.</p><table id="bm-img-f0e1b050-80f6-4751-b94d-4fc431d4cbd2" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">ABGSCe vs. FY'25 guidance</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="f0e1b050-80f6-4751-b94d-4fc431d4cbd2" bm-img-original-height="261" bm-img-original-width="848" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/86170_2def37f0-6ac5-4980-af7b-d6cd9c7dc666.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-f0e1b050-80f6-4751-b94d-4fc431d4cbd2" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/86170_2def37f0-6ac5-4980-af7b-d6cd9c7dc666_733.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/86170_2def37f0-6ac5-4980-af7b-d6cd9c7dc666.svg" width="727" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

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