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Improving marketing efficiency for consumer companiesNepa is a marketing intelligence company combining survey data, sales data, and marketing investment analysis to help global brands optimise short- and long-term growth. Its product suite is based around three products: MMM, which helps brands to optimise their marketing channel mix; its most popular product Brand Tracking, which measures brand strength; and Campaign Pulse, a live feedback tool for campaigns. In 2025, 61% of net sales came from subscriptions, with the rest from ad hoc services. It has ~115 subscribing customers, including several well-known brands, with an ARPU of SEK 1.1m. With a 20-year history of tracking brands, Nepa has amassed a large proprietary dataset, which increases the value and switching costs for its customers in addition to limiting AI disruption risk. Turning a corner to become more scalableNepa made significant changes in 2025 to become more scalable, including putting greater focus on the subscription part of its offering. We expect its strong underlying ARR growth (+8% in 2025 vs -17% reported) to carry into our forecast period, driven by improved customer outreach. Combined with leverage on the now-reduced opex base, this could lift EBITDA to SEK 6m in 2026e and SEK 15m in 2027e, vs SEK -5m in 2025. Seeing no capex needs, we expect cash flow to improve similarly. We set a fair value range of SEK 17-30Nepa is currently trading at 20x/7x our '26e/'27e EV/EBITDA. Our fair value range of SEK 17-30 per share is derived by applying the average EV/EBITDA of its closest peers (6.6x) on '27e EBITDA for the lower figure, while the higher end is based on a DCF. Our range corresponds to 7x-14x '27e EV/EBITDA, a wide range that reflects our view of 2027e EBITDA as not yet representative of the company’s normalised earnings potential. |