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Q2 resultsQ2 sales were SEK 9.7m (vs. ABGSCe SEK 16m), all from Coating Services (SEK 9.1m vs 4.4m Q2'25) and aftermarket (SEK 0.6m vs 2.1m). No machine revenue was recognised. Aftermarket stayed weak on low activity at system customers. EBIT was SEK -13m (vs. ABGSCe SEK -8.5m). The cost base continues to come down, with personnel costs at SEK -12.3m (-15.3m Q2'25) and 41 FTEs (57). Impact has SEK 29.4m of system deliveries in backlog, with one machine shipped and installed during Q3. The company ended Q2 with a cash balance of SEK 15m (31m Q2'25), of which only SEK 8m is unrestricted, which can be compared to its R12m FCF of SEK -41m. Estimate changes and outlookWe lower '26e/'27e/'28e sales by 9%/4%/4%, mainly on Coating Services cuts. Services doubled y-o-y in H1 to SEK 21m (10m) but landed below our run rate in Q2. Impact has two IC500s in backlog. HJWAVE went out in mid-July and Lindberg is scheduled for early Q4, so both '26 deliveries land in H2e. In total, we model two machine deliveries for FY'26e. Market backdrop still mixedElectrolyser consolidation should work in Impact's favour, with most leading international players already paying customers as the market enters its next investment phase, and the LT Metal LOI on iridium oxide coated PTLs adds value per component. China is the offset, where the March pilot programme has yet to convert into fuel cell orders, which management reads as timing rather than a change in underlying conditions. Management flags automotive activity as still soft, in line with the weaker car industry, and Europe remains structurally lagging on hydrogen. That said, a substantial part of the 11 new customers added in the quarter were European, with five in electrolysis and three in solid-oxide fuel cells (SOFC). |