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Diverging segments with Paving carrying the beatNote, Infrea sold its Water & Sewage segment during Q4'25, and we have the segment in the comparable numbers for 2025. Infrea's Q2 was slightly better than expected at group level with sales +1% vs ABGSCe and EBITA +11% vs. ABGSCe but with sharply diverging segment performance. The beat was driven entirely by Paving Services (PS), where sales rose +29% y‑o‑y to SEK 239m, while Land & Construction (L&C) fell ‑9% to SEK 376m on the absence of larger contracts and tougher comps. EBITA in PS rose to SEK 33m (+SEK 11m / +47% y-o-y) on the momentum but was held back by ~SEK 4m of one-off remediation costs at Duo Asfalt. L&C EBITA fell ~SEK 5m to SEK ‑5m on distorted comps (Q2'25 included Mikaels Grävtjänst at ‑SEK 3m and unusually high volumes). Now in the high production seasonWe raise '26e-'28e EBITA by 10-15% on the reported beat and solid momentum in PS on both order intake and delivery. Bitumen was volatile in the quarter, but Infrea managed the pass-through well, which we view as a strength. Duo Asfalt is commissioning a new plant in Aug/Sep, which affected Q2, but should improve in H2. In L&C we expect the north to remain a headwind, but believe most write-downs are behind us as Infrea focuses on catching issues earlier and there have been fewer write-downs in recent years. On that basis, gradually improving margins support SEK 58m EBITA in '26e and a 19% EBITA CAGR over '25-'28e. Infrea is pegged to NetelFor now, Infrea's share price is pegged to Netel's, and we have removed our fair value range. The merger's exchange ratio is 17 new Netel shares for every 4 Infrea shares, i.e., 4.25 Netel shares per Infrea share. Netel closed today at SEK 3.1 per share, implying a value of SEK 13.2 per Infrea share. Netel reported on 10 July and the share is down ~6% since. |