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Alligo - Tooled up for continued margin recovery

07 oktober 2026

<a id="bm-comp-f129faf1-9757-441f-bb22-fef5e1e4ecb8" name="bm-comp-f129faf1-9757-441f-bb22-fef5e1e4ecb8" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="f129faf1-9757-441f-bb22-fef5e1e4ecb8" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q3e: Sales SEK 2,346m and adj. EBITA SEK 177m</li><li>Estimates trimmed by 4/2% for '26e/'27e</li><li>12x/10x '26e/'27e adj. EBITA</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-9d1e16d4-02c3-4294-bb32-1dce95f6a73b" name="bm-comp-9d1e16d4-02c3-4294-bb32-1dce95f6a73b" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="9d1e16d4-02c3-4294-bb32-1dce95f6a73b" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q3 expectations</h3><p>We expect the company to deliver sales of SEK 2,346m, up 7% y-o-y (3% organic, 2% FX and 2% M&amp;A). We forecast an adj. EBITA of SEK 177m, +12% y-o-y, for a margin of 7.5%. We are cautiously optimistic on Sweden. While we see tough comps ahead in Q3'26, as Q3'25 marked the start of the recovery in the market and a return to earnings growth after a prolonged downturn, we also see positive data points. The Swedish building material index increased 9.5% in Q2 (its highest since Q1'22) and Swedish manufacturing PMI sat at a solid 58.1 in September. We expect the market in Norway to remain similar to H1, with subdued oil and gas activity (~7% of group sales) as large offshore developments near completion. This should be partly offset by Q3 historically being a seasonally stronger quarter for margins. We remain upbeat on further margin improvement in Finland, driven by a stronger industrial cycle and high defence exposure.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Estimates lowered by 4/2% for '26e/'27e</h3><p>We make only minor revisions to our sales estimates but lower our '26e-27e adj. EBITA by 4/2%, mainly due to revised margin assumptions for Sweden following a change of analyst. We reduce Sweden&#8217;s '26e adj. EBITA margin to 9.2% from 9.7% and trim Finland&#8217;s by 12bps. Meanwhile, favourable FX effects lift our Norwegian earnings estimates by 2-4%. We expect activity in Norway to remain low but stable in H2.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Share trading at 12x/10x '26e/'27e adj. EV/EBITA</h3><p>We continue to see the margin recovery story as appealing and are encouraged by management's communication. The share is currently trading at 11.7/9.6x '26e/'27e adj. EV/EBITA. Returning -6% the L3M, it has underperformed OMXSALLS which has returned +1%. The Q3 report is due on Friday 23 October.</p></td></tr></table>

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