<a id="bm-comp-f67c0759-fae3-4219-a0cc-7e90de9ce407" name="bm-comp-f67c0759-fae3-4219-a0cc-7e90de9ce407" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="f67c0759-fae3-4219-a0cc-7e90de9ce407" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q3e: 4% sales growth and a 6% adj. EBITDA margin</li><li>Seasonally a small quarter</li><li>We make limited estimate changes, trading at 6x adj. EBITDA '27e</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-b39ed1e8-01e3-45fb-ad8b-9a8b52c16fdf" name="bm-comp-b39ed1e8-01e3-45fb-ad8b-9a8b52c16fdf" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="b39ed1e8-01e3-45fb-ad8b-9a8b52c16fdf" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">A seasonally thin sales quarter</h3><p>Seasonally, Q3 has come in below Q2 in each of the past six years, at 22-24% of full-year sales, and we see no reason for 2026 to break this pattern. Subscription project work is delivered by people, and Swedish holidays compress both delivery capacity and client-side decision-making in July and August. RFP processes typically run over the summer and convert later, and marketing budgets tend to be released as companies approach year-end, both of which push activity into Q4. This is offset by personnel costs being seasonally lowest in Q3 due to the holiday effect.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">ARR provides some foresight</h3><p>Subscription revenue is relatively steady at ~25% of ARR, which means the SEK 141m ARR base exiting Q2'26 effectively locks in around 70% of Q3 revenue before the quarter starts. Ad hoc has been the historical swing factor, but as Nepa intends to decrease its ad hoc focus, we now expect H2 to be less volatile. We expect Q3 to deliver organic sales growth of 4% to SEK 51m, implying -4% q-o-q (on account of ad hoc). On opex, we assume a broadly flat underlying base versus Q2, with the headquarters relocation and the reduced UK cost base now in the run rate. As such, we estimate adj. EBITDA of SEK 3.2m for a margin of 6.3% (vs. SEK -1m in Q3'25), which lifts LTM adj. EBITDA to SEK 9m from SEK 6m in Q2.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Trading at 6.4x EBITDA adj.</h3><p>We make limited estimate revisions, slightly trimming sales by 0.5-1.1% in '26e-'27e and assuming lighter net ARR generation in Q3 than in H1. We also slightly trim our opex base, which partly offsets the negative sales revisions, while adj. EBITDA is trimmed by 2-1%. Keep in mind that Nepa's business model is highly scalable and that the earnings revisions reflect small changes in absolute terms ('26e adj. EBITDA down 0.2m). Nepa is currently trading at 6.4x '27e EV/EBITDA adj.</p></td></tr></table>