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Nepa - Marketing measurement on a recurring base

04 september 2026

<a id="bm-comp-9ec127f8-3a6d-4107-8534-42b7bd33c2c3" name="bm-comp-9ec127f8-3a6d-4107-8534-42b7bd33c2c3" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="9ec127f8-3a6d-4107-8534-42b7bd33c2c3" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Helps brands to market efficiently through insights</li><li>Underlying ARR +8% y-o-y in 2025 carries into 2026e</li><li>We set a fair value range of SEK 17-30</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-40e1925c-a613-495c-bb98-a8a2fea43690" name="bm-comp-40e1925c-a613-495c-bb98-a8a2fea43690" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="40e1925c-a613-495c-bb98-a8a2fea43690" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Improving marketing efficiency for consumer companies</h3><p>Nepa is a marketing intelligence company combining survey data, sales data, and marketing investment analysis to help global brands optimise short- and long-term growth. Its product suite is based around three products: MMM, which helps brands to optimise their marketing channel mix; its most popular product Brand Tracking, which measures brand strength; and Campaign Pulse, a live feedback tool for campaigns. In 2025, 61% of net sales came from subscriptions, with the rest from ad hoc services. It has ~115 subscribing customers, including several well-known brands, with an ARPU of SEK 1.1m. With a 20-year history of tracking brands, Nepa has amassed a large proprietary dataset, which increases the value and switching costs for its customers in addition to limiting AI disruption risk.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Turning a corner to become more scalable</h3><p>Nepa made significant changes in 2025 to become more scalable, including putting greater focus on the subscription part of its offering. We expect its strong underlying ARR growth (+8% in 2025 vs -17% reported) to carry into our forecast period, driven by improved customer outreach. Combined with leverage on the now-reduced opex base, this could lift EBITDA to SEK 6m in 2026e and SEK 15m in 2027e, vs SEK -5m in 2025. Seeing no capex needs, we expect cash flow to improve similarly.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">We set a fair value range of SEK 17-30</h3><p>Nepa is currently trading at 20x/7x our '26e/'27e EV/EBITDA. Our fair value range of SEK 17-30 per share is derived by applying the average EV/EBITDA of its closest peers (6.6x) on '27e EBITDA for the lower figure, while the higher end is based on a DCF. Our range corresponds to 7x-14x '27e EV/EBITDA, a wide range that reflects our view of 2027e EBITDA as not yet representative of the company&#8217;s normalised earnings potential.</p></td></tr></table>

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