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Arctic Paper - Turning the page on a weak market

12 maj 2026

<a id="bm-comp-bebe90eb-2a72-4148-9216-9e9e0dd84cdd" name="bm-comp-bebe90eb-2a72-4148-9216-9e9e0dd84cdd" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="bebe90eb-2a72-4148-9216-9e9e0dd84cdd" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li><font color="#000000">Q1 Paper EBIT of ~PLN -2m</font></li><li><font color="#000000">Still waiting for Rottneros pulp tailwinds</font></li><li><font color="#000000">Fair value range of SEK 15-50</font></li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-29db6ced-cbe6-474f-88bb-7e691bccb7d9" name="bm-comp-29db6ced-cbe6-474f-88bb-7e691bccb7d9" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="29db6ced-cbe6-474f-88bb-7e691bccb7d9" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Q1 Paper EBIT of ~PLN -2m</font></h3><p><font color="#000000">Paper EBIT was PLN -2m vs. ABGSCe -15m, with the beat driven by stronger-than-expected volumes (137k tonnes vs 125k in Q1'25). Impressively</font><font color="#000000">, Arctic's market share has risen by ~2pp over the past three years. The quarter was again characterised by geopolitical uncertainty, trade barriers and subdued demand. Group EBIT improved sequentially to PLN -36m (-72m in Q4&#8217;25), while EBITDA came in at PLN 2.6m, reflecting a continued weak performance in Rottneros due to FX and weak demand. Looking ahead, announced price increases of 5&#8211;7% from April and 4&#8211;8% from June aim to support margins, alongside ~PLN 6m in cost savings and incremental earnings from the Grycksbo pellet ramp-up (~SEK 40-50m in 2026). However, with demand still soft and visibility limited, we expect only a gradual recovery and forecast Q2 Paper EBIT of PLN 24m (group PLN 16m). Our 2026e estimates are up due to the stronger Q1.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Still waiting for pulp tailwinds</font></h3><p><font color="#000000">Paper markets remain structurally oversupplied at ~75% utilisation, and while ~4-6% supply cuts are underway, the market still needs ~3mt of capacity cuts to reach historical utilisation. The pulp market faced headwinds in 2025, but key drivers are now moving in the right direction. Hardwood prices are up ~22% (38% in EU) following Suzano&#8217;s +30% hikes. However, Rottneros' exposure is mainly to softwood and CTMP, which have lagged hardwood, i.e. we are still waiting for the Rottneros pulp tailwinds. FX does not help either. Overall, management retained a cautious outlook, with 'no indication of a rapid market recovery', and emphasised continued focus on cost savings.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Fair value range of SEK 15-50</font></h3><p><font color="#000000">The company is trading at an EV/CE multiple of ~0.40x, which is ~48% below its historical average. We have applied three valuation methodologies and arrive at a fair value range of SEK 15-50.</font></p></td></tr></table>

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