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NYAB - Starting the year with a record order backlog

08 maj 2026

<a id="bm-comp-34417570-c747-4c97-9610-cd58b61a13c0" name="bm-comp-34417570-c747-4c97-9610-cd58b61a13c0" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="34417570-c747-4c97-9610-cd58b61a13c0" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>We leave our estimates fairly unchanged (EBIT +1-0%)</li><li>But strong order intake in Q1 de-risks 2026 estimates</li><li>We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 6-9 per share</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-cb839e80-c360-4877-945c-2557bd677597" name="bm-comp-cb839e80-c360-4877-945c-2557bd677597" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="cb839e80-c360-4877-945c-2557bd677597" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q1 characterised by strong orders</h3><p>NYAB performed solidly in a seasonally weaker Q1, with earnings (EUR 1m) fairly in line with our estimates and strong FCF (EUR 5m), despite a bit weaker organic growth (-6%). Due to low absolute levels of earnings in Q1 in general (typically &lt;5% of full-year earnings), we put more emphasis on the order intake, which remained strong. With order growth of 24% and the backlog up 28% y-o-y, we think the company remains well-positioned to deliver on our full-year 2026 expectations.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Estimates relatively unchanged</h3><p>We keep our EBIT estimates fairly unchanged (+0.6%/0.3%/0.3% on '26e/'27e/'28e) and expect NYAB to deliver 19% EBIT growth in 2026 and 10% in 2027. These assumptions exclude potential positive impacts from the two large ongoing Phase 1 projects that the company expects to convert to Phase 2 later this year (during Q2-Q3). Together, these projects provide substantial upside potential to the order backlog, with a potential total order value of ~EUR 700m (of which 400m-500m relates to NYAB).</p><h3 class="bm-h3">9x/8x/7x EV/EBITA '26e/'27e/'28e, 15-20% below key peers</h3><p>With the share reaction to the report and based on our unchanged estimates, the valuation remains at ~9x/8x/7x EV/EBITA on '26e/'27e/'28e, which is ~15-20% below infrastructure service peers, and ~10-20% below Nordic construction peers, which are expected to deliver fairly similar earnings growth on average. But due to its net cash position and strong cash flow (&gt;100% FCF/EBITA conversion historically), we think NYAB has a better opportunity to scale faster and grow through M&amp;A. And because of the strong orders, we think our 2026 estimates for NYAB have been de-risked, although it still has to execute with good margins, which the company has done historically (6-12% L10Y vs. construction peers at ~3%).</p></td></tr></table>

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