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Clavister - Improving margins backed by cost control

07 november 2025

<a id="bm-comp-32a67af0-5163-47bf-8168-ebce23786c81" name="bm-comp-32a67af0-5163-47bf-8168-ebce23786c81" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="32a67af0-5163-47bf-8168-ebce23786c81" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li><font color="#000000">Q3: EBITDA of SEK 13m and a margin of 25%</font></li><li><font color="#000000">We cut EBITDA by 5-2% for '26e-'27e</font></li><li><font color="#000000">Currently trading at 37x EV/EBITDA</font></li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-a6875129-de2e-4d54-8384-bf11410c6d1c" name="bm-comp-a6875129-de2e-4d54-8384-bf11410c6d1c" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="a6875129-de2e-4d54-8384-bf11410c6d1c" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Cost control and improving cross sales</h3><p><font color="#000000">Clavister reported sales of SEK 50m, corresponding to 15% y-o-y growth (17% organic, -1% FX), in line with the pre-announced figures. Growth was mainly driven by previously won defence orders, where sales increased by ~100% y-o-y this quarter, representing ~25% of total sales. Sales growth in the civilian business was held back somewhat by timing effects, but ARR increased 9%, demonstrating a solid underlying trend and steady demand. EBITDA amounted to SEK 13m, corresponding to a 25% margin</font> &#8211; <font color="#000000">the highest to date &#8211; supported by firm cost control and stronger cross sales efforts.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3">Postponed projects to set in 2026</h3><p><font color="#000000">We cut sales by 2-1% for '26e-'27e, mainly reflecting delayed orders. We expect Q4 organic growth of ~10%, driven by postponed deliveries. We also cut EBITDA by 5-2% for the same period, with EBITDA now expected at SEK 69-94m, representing margins of ~25-30%.</font> <font color="#000000">Q3 was seasonally softer and affected by distributors postponing purchasing decisions, which we expect to be realised during H1'26e. We see this as a timing issue rather than a structural slowdown, and expect momentum to normalise as deliveries ramp up.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3">Improving fundamentals</h3><p><font color="#000000">Clavister is now trading at 20-15x EV/EBITDA for '26e-'27e on our revised estimates. We believe the company is well-positioned to reach positive EBIT on the full year in 2026, supported by cost efficiencies and operating leverage.</font></p></td></tr></table>

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