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Infrea - A quarter in the right direction

07 november 2025

<a id="bm-comp-e0cb4729-a938-4a4e-863e-5dc0a9e579e3" name="bm-comp-e0cb4729-a938-4a4e-863e-5dc0a9e579e3" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="e0cb4729-a938-4a4e-863e-5dc0a9e579e3" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Sales -5%, adj. EBITA +25% vs. ABGSCe, 0% org. growth</li><li>'25e-'27e adj. EBITA estimates likely up 8-15%</li><li>Share to focus on the margin improvment</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-da65e6b3-4e75-48ce-9946-37b17ee11cf9" name="bm-comp-da65e6b3-4e75-48ce-9946-37b17ee11cf9" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="da65e6b3-4e75-48ce-9946-37b17ee11cf9" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q3 details</h3><p>Infrea delivered a solid report with sales flat y-o-y, but a high margin driven by paving services. Sales came in at SEK 531m (-5% vs. ABGSCe), 0% y-o-y of which +0% organic (ABGSCe +7%, +8% Q2'25), driven by paving services, partly offset by land &amp; construction. Adj. EBITA gre<font style="background-color:#ffffff;">w SEK 12m</font> y-o-y to SEK 34m (+25%, SEK +7m, vs. ABGSCe), for a margin of 6.2% (ABGSCe 4.7%, 4.1% Q3'24) driven by good result in Asfaltsgruppen. Looking at y-o-y development, we see positive development in all segments. There is a SEK 0.9m one off cost in due to the divestment of Mikaels Gr&#228;vj&#228;nst which was on our estimates.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Estimate changes and outlook</h3><p>Looking ahead, management is not providing a formal outlook. However, they acknowledge that the market remains challenging. Nevertheless, we consider Infrea's strong margin and positive internal development to be signs that it is navigating the market well. We expect estimates for '25e-'27e adj. EBITA to mechanically come up by 10-15%.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Final thoughts</h3><p>A solid report with ales in line with expectations and strong profitability. The share has outperformed the broader market into numbers (4% L1M vs. OMXSGI 0%) and is trading at 10-6x EBITA '2<font style="background-color:#ffffff;">5e-'27e. We believe that the market will recognise the positive margin development resulting from Infrea's hard internal work.</font></p></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-5e05d128-984c-4e26-aaf3-777da75579a3" name="bm-comp-5e05d128-984c-4e26-aaf3-777da75579a3" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="5e05d128-984c-4e26-aaf3-777da75579a3" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-761d9c08-6d76-48fd-b9cf-5552805b3b2c" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Outcome vs. expectations</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="761d9c08-6d76-48fd-b9cf-5552805b3b2c" bm-img-original-height="725" bm-img-original-width="516" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/91842_a2e8cf75-4f07-4dce-997a-82cb0fe52ed9.svg" bm-img-width-hint="70.98%" id="bm-id-876ed9a0-dd09-4956-a483-125ec3e60472" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/91842_a2e8cf75-4f07-4dce-997a-82cb0fe52ed9_516.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/91842_a2e8cf75-4f07-4dce-997a-82cb0fe52ed9.svg" width="516" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

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