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NYAB - Solid margin resilience amid strong growth

06 november 2025

<a id="bm-comp-0da6b3bc-edfc-42a3-adf4-b69a49cb7b76" name="bm-comp-0da6b3bc-edfc-42a3-adf4-b69a49cb7b76" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="0da6b3bc-edfc-42a3-adf4-b69a49cb7b76" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>We trim EBIT by 4-3% on slightly lower margins</li><li>Strong growth continues, with impressive margin resilience</li><li>SEK 6-9 fair value reiterated; trades 5-10% below key peers</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-4a4f0886-21bd-42d5-a306-f2df64f8020e" name="bm-comp-4a4f0886-21bd-42d5-a306-f2df64f8020e" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="4a4f0886-21bd-42d5-a306-f2df64f8020e" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Impressive growth momentum in the organic business</h3><p>Q3 was characterised by continued strong momentum for the organic Civil Engineering business, where the main market (Sweden) delivered 67% organic growth y-o-y (group organic growth was 32%). Management highlighted that the strong growth has resulted in some short-term margin pressure to prepare for the growth, but that it expect margins to revert once the growth rate moderates a bit. Still, margins in Sweden were 8% (10%), which we think shows that the company can execute well on a higher scale. Meanwhile, in Finland, where demand remains more muted, the margin improved from 7% to 8%. The group EBITA margin also declined from 10% last year to 8% (partly as a result of Sweden, but also from the consolidation of Dovre, although the group's total EBITA grew 29% y-o-y). As management guided for, the focus for Dovre is on improving margins rather than growing, and in Q3 the margin was 5% vs 3% in H1. Thus, we believe the company is delivering well on its objectives in all three core markets (growth in Sweden and margins in Finland and Norway/Dovre).</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Estimate changes</h3><p>Although we do not think that the overall outlook has changed for the company, accounting for the margin pressure in Sweden makes us trim our EBIT estimates by 4% in 2025 and 3% in 2026-2027.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Priced below key peers, despite higher earnings growth</h3><p>After the negative reaction on the Q3 report, the share is -15% L3M vs OMXSGI +5%. This has resulted in a multiple contraction, and the share now trades at 11-8x EV/EBITA on '25e-'27e, which is 5-10% below construction and infra peers. For reference, we forecast 16% EBITA CAGR for NYAB '24-'27e vs consensus' 6-10% for said peers. We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 6-9 per share after the report, as we view the outlook as relatively unchanged.</p></td></tr></table>

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