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B3 Consulting Group - Still at the mercy of the IT consulting market

13 oktober 2025

<a id="bm-comp-1cb51168-c399-4d2c-9535-c47be3d8e381" name="bm-comp-1cb51168-c399-4d2c-9535-c47be3d8e381" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="1cb51168-c399-4d2c-9535-c47be3d8e381" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li><font color="#000000">We cut '25e-'27e adj. EBITA by 4-8%</font></li><li><font color="#000000">Expect some EBITA growth in Q3</font></li><li><font color="#000000">NTM EV/EBITA ~9x</font></li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-89a05410-d384-481b-b3ec-2742f3ff8e82" name="bm-comp-89a05410-d384-481b-b3ec-2742f3ff8e82" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="89a05410-d384-481b-b3ec-2742f3ff8e82" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;"><font color="#000000">Expectations for Q3'25</font></h3><p style="text-align:left;"><font color="#000000">B3 Consulting Group will publish its Q3'25 report on 22 October. We expect sales of SEK 268m, implying 9% y-o-y growth (and an organic decline of 10%). This is in line with market data, which suggest sluggish demand conditions, flat-to-negative hourly prices and a stale net recruitment trend. We also expect EBITA of SEK 7m, corresponding to an EBITA margin of less than 3%.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;"><font color="#000000">Estimates down a bit</font></h3><p><font color="#000000">We cut our '25e-'27e sales estimates by 1-3% due to continued weak IT consultant market data, and reduce adj. EBITA by 4-8% for the same period. While bench capacity has largely been addressed, the current market environment still limits the company's ability to hike hourly prices. On a more encouraging note, however, we expect positive net recruitment toward year-end, a move that could prove beneficial if coupled with a broader IT consulting market recovery.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3" style="text-align:left;"><font color="#000000">Valuation</font></h3><p><font color="#000000">On our revised estimates, B3 is trading at ~9x NTM EV/EBITA, which is in line with current peer multiples. In addition, the company is trading ~40% be<font color="#000000">low its historical EV/FTE multiple,</font> indicating that it is currently expected to generate lower earnings per consultant than historically. We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 120&#8211;190, as we continue to view the current margin profile as cyclical rather than structural, and not representative of a steady-state margin over the coming five years. While the near-term outlook suggests continued challenging conditions, we expect improvement toward the latter half of 2026e.</font></p></td></tr></table>

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