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Petrolia Noco - A steady quarter

02 juni 2025

<a id="bm-comp-1b3e13ac-b53d-46bd-9ade-d25250e740fc" name="bm-comp-1b3e13ac-b53d-46bd-9ade-d25250e740fc" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="1b3e13ac-b53d-46bd-9ade-d25250e740fc" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q1 figures above ABGSCe</li><li>Minor underlying changes, applying our latest oil market view</li><li>Fair value range of NOK 1.2-3.7 (1.2-3.8)</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-46a43bc2-fb52-4169-a569-c5f8b46503cd" name="bm-comp-46a43bc2-fb52-4169-a569-c5f8b46503cd" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="46a43bc2-fb52-4169-a569-c5f8b46503cd" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q1 figures above ABGSCe</h3><p>Q1 EBITDAX of NOK 118m was above our estimate of NOK 101m, mainly due to higher realised oil prices of USD 79/bbl (ABGSCe USD 75/bbl). Net production in Q1'25 was 2,150boe/d vs. 2,183boe/d in Q4'24 and our estimate for Q1'25 of 2,146boe/d. The company exited Q1'25 with a cash position of NOK 15m, down from NOK 25m at the end of Q4'24. We note that PNO reported a negative equity of NOK -8m in Q4, mainly due to the reversal of capitalised drilling costs related to the drilling of L&#248;vmeis, and therefore completed a private placement of NOK 20m in Q1'25 (raising the share count from 170m to 190m).</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Minor underlying changes, applying our latest oil market view</h3><p>Following the Q1'25 report, we make minor underlying changes to our estimates, but now apply our latest oil market view as described in our sector report <u><a data-bm-trackable="false" href="https://abg-portal.bluematrix.com/report/867b09a1-2a81-434d-bab5-a902fa2a65c4" target="_blank">"weaker oil market fundamentals"</a></u>. In short, we lower our '25e and '26e oil price to USD 72.5/bbl (from 75/80), reiterate USD 80/bbl for FY '27e&#8211;30e, and raise our gas price forecasts to USD 11.9/mmBTU (from 10.4) for '25e, USD 11 (9) for '26e, USD 10 (8) for '27e, and USD 9.0 (8) thereafter, yielding EBITDAX estimates of NOK 357m and NOK 354m for '25 an '26. See p. 3 for our estimates. We note that in our latest PNO report we made substantial estimate increases to our Brage field model, which we now reiterate, read more here: <u><a data-bm-trackable="false" href="https://abg-portal.bluematrix.com/report/1bd531cc-bb31-4af8-9467-a9c4effa2551" target="_blank">"Brage reserve uplift boosts production outlook"</a>.</u></p><h3 class="bm-h3">Fair value range of NOK 1.2-3.7 (1.2-3.8)</h3><p>We estimate a NAV of NOK 3.7/sh for PNO, and we estimate a fair value range of NOK 1.2-3.7/sh. If we work backwards to the discounted oil price, we argue that, all else equal, an oil price of ~USD 55/bbl is discounted in PNO, based on the current share price of NOK 1.50/sh.</p></td></tr></table>

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