<a id="bm-comp-4444a0c0-16ca-4e75-a516-a9c683fe9697" name="bm-comp-4444a0c0-16ca-4e75-a516-a9c683fe9697" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="4444a0c0-16ca-4e75-a516-a9c683fe9697" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Doro sales up 13% y-o-y in Q1, subscriptions launching in H2</li><li>'25e-'28e EBIT CAGR of 32%...</li><li>... leading EV/EBIT to drop from 16x in '25e to 4.5x in '28e</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-548fb5ac-d163-49ba-857d-6caf41963c9e" name="bm-comp-548fb5ac-d163-49ba-857d-6caf41963c9e" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="548fb5ac-d163-49ba-857d-6caf41963c9e" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Strong device sales from Doro, small estimate changes</h3><p>Q1 revenue of NOK 339m was in line with our estimate, but with a different mix. Kids & Youth (old Xplora) device sales were soft, but this was driven by a low sell-in to channels, as volumes moved to Q2. On the call, Xplora said that it expects to “catch up” this volume in Q2. Device activations of 84k were in line with Q1'24 (82k) and Q1'23 (83k), indicating stable end-market demand. Senior (Doro) device sales, however, were strong, growing 13% y-o-y, but costs were also up, resulting in clean group opex 4% above our estimate. This will likely continue in Q2 due to a marketing campaign for Doro's new Aurora product line. We make minor tweaks to our EBITA estimates, keeping ‘25e EBITA unchanged but lift ‘26e by 3%.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Doro SIM and Youth phones launching in Q2-Q3</h3><p>The most important operational factor was that the launches of Doro SIMs and Youth phones remain on track, both expected in Q2. Xplora plans to launch Doro subscriptions in Sweden in June, followed by the rest of the Nordics in Q3, and the UK, Germany, and France in Q4. Its Kids business has achieved a ~26% conversion rate (subscriptions per watch sold). For Doro, we expect a lower rate, as seniors usually have mobile subscriptions. But with ~1.5m Doro phones sold annually, even a 5-10% conversion rate would be enough to create strong earnings growth. We model 8% conversion rate from '27e (gradual ramp-up until then). Combined with modest growth in Kids & Youth, this gives revenue and EBIT CAGRs of 11% and 32% for '25e-'28e, resulting in EV/EBIT dropping from 16x in '25e to 4.5x in '28e.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Fair value range up to NOK 35-62 (23-42)</h3><p>On our '25e-'26e, Xplora is trading at 15.8-11.3x EV/EBIT and 13.0-9.8x EV/EBITDA-capex. This is 26-10% below our peer group on EV/EBITDA-capex. Our DCF scenarios points to NOK 35-62/share.</p></td></tr></table>
Xplora Technologies - Entering the next phase of its growth journey
27 maj 2025