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BTS Group - Q1 miss but FY guidance kept

16 maj 2025

<a id="bm-comp-022e784f-e96b-4f8b-93b4-b0ef743a8319" name="bm-comp-022e784f-e96b-4f8b-93b4-b0ef743a8319" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="022e784f-e96b-4f8b-93b4-b0ef743a8319" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>1% organic growth (cons 4%) and EBITA -13% vs cons</li><li>Reiterates 2025 guidance of EBITA &gt;2024, Q1 EBITA 0% y-o-y</li><li>See AI related cost savings, estimates -5-8% and share similarily</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-52bf9da1-4211-43b6-bd74-7f5033c79380" name="bm-comp-52bf9da1-4211-43b6-bd74-7f5033c79380" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="52bf9da1-4211-43b6-bd74-7f5033c79380" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q1 details</h3><p>Sales SEK 647m (-5% vs ABG 678m, -5% vs cons 680m), adj. EBITA 59m (-15% vs ABG 69m, -13% vs cons 67m), adj. EBITA margin 9.1% (ABG 10.2%, cons 9.9%). Adj. EBITA 0% y-o-y. Organic growth 1% (vs ABG 4%). Organic growth per segment: North America 2%, Europe 9%, Other markets -2%, APG -9%.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Guides for better growth ahead</h3><p>More cautious business climate in North America and Other markets (some temporary calendar effects) in Q1. Sales misses across all regions, while the primary earnings miss is in the North American segment. BTS expects growth recovery for all regions ahead. AI advancements are expected to drive internal efficiencies and save USD 5m annually realised between Q3&#8217;25-Q1&#8217;26 (2% of annual cost base). FY guidance reiterated, &#8220;2025 EBITA to be higher than 2024&#8221; (vs cons +14% y-o-y) with the added comment that uncertainties has increased and the volatile USD can affect this (~50% of sales in North America).</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Estimates -5-8%</h3><p>We expect consensus to reduce EBITA estimates by 5-8% due to the sales and earnings miss, and share should underperform similarily today. Conf call CET 8.00.</p></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-f3ab1561-477a-4e36-8ddc-074ff488cc8c" name="bm-comp-f3ab1561-477a-4e36-8ddc-074ff488cc8c" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="f3ab1561-477a-4e36-8ddc-074ff488cc8c" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-f1982175-4743-483f-b780-ae3c8f69ce0c" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Deviation</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="f1982175-4743-483f-b780-ae3c8f69ce0c" bm-img-original-height="1081" bm-img-original-width="837" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/87853_18a55d16-1356-4c5c-bef8-95b763ca2b23.svg" bm-img-width-hint="86.24%" id="bm-id-f1982175-4743-483f-b780-ae3c8f69ce0c" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/87853_18a55d16-1356-4c5c-bef8-95b763ca2b23_627.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/87853_18a55d16-1356-4c5c-bef8-95b763ca2b23.svg" width="627" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

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