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Prevas - Building a Nordic company

14 februari 2025

<a id="bm-comp-7bffe374-c186-4d60-aecd-9774f948d2cd" name="bm-comp-7bffe374-c186-4d60-aecd-9774f948d2cd" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="7bffe374-c186-4d60-aecd-9774f948d2cd" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>6% organic sales decline y-o-y</li><li>Finnish market is seeing signs of improvement</li><li>Adj. EBITA down 10-9% for '25e-'26e</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-47b45602-b4b0-4b7c-b597-f27b812001be" name="bm-comp-47b45602-b4b0-4b7c-b597-f27b812001be" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="47b45602-b4b0-4b7c-b597-f27b812001be" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q4: Sales -7% and adj. EBITA -23% vs. ABGSCe</h3><p>The challenges from Q3 persisted in Q4, with an organic sales decline of 6% and adj. EBITA of SEK 31.9m (44.3m), equal to an adj. EBITA margin of 7.4% (11.1%). The market is characterised as uncertain with some investment decisions being delayed, and although the end-markets of Energy and Defense remain strong, they could not offset weaknesses in Automotive, Life Science and Telecom. In terms of profitability, Q4 had one less working day than last year, explaining roughly 150bp of the y-o-y drop in adj. EBITA margin, and although Enmac is now posting positive EBITA again, it is still a drag on group margins. Sales and adj. EBITA were 7% and 23% below ABGSCe, respectively. FCF improved 21% y-o-y, and the board proposed an unchanged dividend of SEK 4.75.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Enmac is improving and seeing solid order intake</h3><p>It was important to see that the struggles in Enmac are already starting to improve as the integration is progressing according to plan. EBITA turned positive, order intake was at least SEK 60m and Prevas reduced the temporary layoffs it announced in Q3. Management seems optimistic about the possibility to return to historical profitability, but it might take some time. We think we will see q-o-q improvements in the coming quarters but the drop in organic growth was worse than expected, and we lower sales by 4% and adj. EBITA by 10% for '25e.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Fair value range of SEK 105-161 (110-166)</h3><p>We revise our fair value range to reflect estimate revisions, and it now stands at SEK 105-161. Prevas is in the process of building a larger company with a Nordic geographical presence, rather than only having operations in Sweden. This transition is taking some time to settle and causing lower profitability initially. Long term it should lead to increased growth opportunities, though.</p></td></tr></table>

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