<a id="bm-comp-62cbba15-dba9-441f-9974-1e39cee44ca2" name="bm-comp-62cbba15-dba9-441f-9974-1e39cee44ca2" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="62cbba15-dba9-441f-9974-1e39cee44ca2" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>'25e-'26e EBITA down 7-5%</li><li>Freight rate normalisation required for better gross margins</li><li>'25e EV/EBITA ~9x, ~40% below peers</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-2ee73a5f-508e-463a-b357-7137ba6507ee" name="bm-comp-2ee73a5f-508e-463a-b357-7137ba6507ee" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="2ee73a5f-508e-463a-b357-7137ba6507ee" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">What to expect in Q4'24</h3><p>We expect sales of SEK 2,102m for Q4'24, implying 8% organic y-o-y growth in addition to a 0.7% FX tailwind. We anticipate a gross margin of 31%, which should be somewhat pressured by elevated freight rates. Our updated EBITA estimate is SEK 157m, which corresponds to an EBITA margin of 7.5%. We anticipate a significant working capital release in Q4, to the tune of SEK 130m.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">'25e-'26e adj. EBITA down 7-5%</h3><p>We cut '25e-'26e sales by 1% and cut '25e-'26e adj. EBITA by 7-5%, as we assume a somewhat higher net operating expense base. As freight rates remain elevated (USD 3,000/container rather than a normal rate of USD 1,500/container), we believe that gross margin expansion will be somewhat inhibited. It is likely that a reversion to historical, normal rates would add ~1.3pp to the gross margin. Such a reversion, however, would likely require a resolution of the Red Sea crisis. Moreover, as Humble's leverage ratio decreases, the chance of value-accretive M&amp;A increases. In terms of timing, we would not be surprised if Humble started to acquire businesses around the middle of '25, and the balance sheet would likely allow acquisitions up to an enterprise value of ~SEK 250m.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Valuation</h3><p>Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~9x '25e EV/EBITA, while peers are trading at an average of 15x despite growing earnings at a generally slower rate. However, we note that peers are trading ~5% above their historical average.</p></td></tr></table>