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INVISIO - Continues to impress

14 februari 2025

<a id="bm-comp-0b126418-95a4-41e4-9125-97c6095fdddf" name="bm-comp-0b126418-95a4-41e4-9125-97c6095fdddf" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="0b126418-95a4-41e4-9125-97c6095fdddf" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>2024 closed with record sales, EBIT and order intake</li><li>Increased TAM assumptions prompt upgrades, EBIT +27-37%</li><li>Shares trading at 33x 2025e EV/EBIT</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-b2513fc7-0e2a-4b36-a54c-cd1126e3b378" name="bm-comp-b2513fc7-0e2a-4b36-a54c-cd1126e3b378" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="b2513fc7-0e2a-4b36-a54c-cd1126e3b378" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Updated TAM enables long growth runway</h3><p>The momentum is certainly strong for Invisio, in the midst of solid demand from military customers modernising their base of soldiers and equipping them with first-class communication and hearing protection products. We are impressed by the updated TAM calculations provided by the company yesterday, upgrading the estimate from SEK 14bn to 25bn with detailed assumptions and sub-sectors as underlying drivers. Estimating Invisio's market potential and penetration level has been somewhat difficult, in our view, so these new TAM estimates give more comfort into a long runway for growth. Closing 2024 at SEK 1.8bn in sales essentially means that Invisio has penetrated 7% of its TAM, and as it targets 20% annual growth, it means many years of growth in the event of a successful penetration journey. The acquisition of UltraLynx provides an exciting opportunity to modernise the solider offering outside of core products (communication and hearing protection) that we look forward to following.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Positive estimate revisions</h3><p>We had a somewhat cautious view entering 2025 on the back of three strong years (2022-24) with growth rates above the financial targets (20% growth rates) and strong demand from military customers. However, the recent strong order intake has continued to hold up the order book close to all-time-high levels despite Q4 being a well-executed delivery quarter. This, combined with the increased TAM estimates and the acquisition of UltraLynx, makes us raise our sales assumptions for 2025e-26e by 10% and EBIT by 27-37%.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Share at 33x 2025e EV/EBIT</h3><p>We expect the underlying strong momentum to continue during 2025, although we have a seemingly low organic growth estimate (4%). Adjusting for the third party radio delivery in the base figure in 2024, we have an underlying growth of 15%.</p></td></tr></table>

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