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Eolus Vind - Impressive quarter wraps up '24

13 februari 2025

<a id="bm-comp-d0ef410b-2108-4861-b187-206f5b27735e" name="bm-comp-d0ef410b-2108-4861-b187-206f5b27735e" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="d0ef410b-2108-4861-b187-206f5b27735e" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Strong EBIT of SEK 437m (ABGSCe 495m) in Q4</li><li>New targets: &gt;15% ROE and total '25-'27 EBIT &gt;SEK 1.4bn</li><li>Updates on '25-'27 project pipeline</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-0096a081-a6e5-4534-899e-4db07bff93a9" name="bm-comp-0096a081-a6e5-4534-899e-4db07bff93a9" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="0096a081-a6e5-4534-899e-4db07bff93a9" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q4 results</h3><p>Eolus reported strong sales of SEK 729m (ABGSCe 727m) and EBIT of SEK 437m (ABGSCe 495m), driven by the milestone payment from the Centennial Flats solar and battery storage project, in line with our estimates. In conjunction with the Q4 report, the company also presented new financial targets for 2025-2027. These included an operating profit target of SEK 1,400m in total for '25-'27 (ABGSCe 1,158m), an ROE target of &gt;15% on average (previously &gt;10%, ABGSCe 14% on average for '25e-'27e), an equity ratio of &gt;30% and dividend payouts corresponding to 20-50% of the group's profit after tax. The mid-point of the dividend payout target in combination with the company's ROE target would imply an 8-9% dividend yield for '25-'27.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Strong project pipeline ahead</h3><p>In the company's Q4 conference call, management shed some light on its current project pipeline for 2025-2027, leading us to do some timing adjustments to our estimates. In the near term, we expect Eolus to divest its onshore projects D&#229;llebo, F&#229;gel&#229;s and Boarp (88 MW in total) in the first half of '25. In H2'25, Eolus expects to start the construction of its Pienava and &#214;lme onshore wind projects, its Roccasecca BESS project and the Murtom&#228;ki 2 hybrid project. We find it positive that these projects appear to be progressing as planned.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">European market remains cautious</h3><p>The share is trading at '25e-'26e P/Es of 3-4x, with the low multiples partly explained by the company's volatile historic earnings trend and the perceived risk in future project sales. In its Q4 report, Eolus highlighted that the European market, particularly in the Nordics, remains cautious, with higher ROI requirements from customers, low electricity price forecasts and increased competition. We believe this increases the risk in near-term project margins.</p></td></tr></table>

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