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OrganoClick - Demand recovery in 2025

13 februari 2025

<a id="bm-comp-c1559416-931a-4a8e-b9a3-abf1b5ef3c31" name="bm-comp-c1559416-931a-4a8e-b9a3-abf1b5ef3c31" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="c1559416-931a-4a8e-b9a3-abf1b5ef3c31" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Sales decline continued, but solid cost control, comps ease from here</li><li>Cut sales by 2%, EBIT by SEK 3m, markets to improve this year</li><li>Good momentum in GC&amp;MP, strong project portfolio in NW&amp;FT</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-e7163999-2727-4863-8528-3c3737d4242d" name="bm-comp-e7163999-2727-4863-8528-3c3737d4242d" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="e7163999-2727-4863-8528-3c3737d4242d" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Q4 results</font></h3><p>Sales declined by 23% y-o-y, coming in 10% below our estimate. The y-o-y decline was driven by NW&amp;FT (-25%) and FW (-39%), but growth also came in lower than we expected in GC&amp;MP (+4%), albeit vs. tough comps. All in all, the three segments extended the respective contraction and growth trends seen throughout '24. Despite the sharp y-o-y sales decline, adj. EBIT held up better, coming in at SEK -6.9m (-6.1m), only 2% below our estimate, thanks to significantly better opex control. The gross margin of 12.7% (18.4%) was negatively affected by the declining volume, but also by a correction of inventory obsolescence of an unspecified magnitude, meaning this weakness should likely not be fully extrapolated. Lease adj. FCF at SEK 0.6m was a bit better than expected thanks to a NWC release, and the company ended the quarter with total liquidity of SEK 6.2m, compared to a R12m lease adj. FCF of SEK -14m.</p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Estimate changes</font></h3><p>We cut '25e-'26e sales by 2%, and EBIT by SEK 3m following the report. Management stated that 2025 has started according to plan within all business areas. Within GC&amp;MP the focus is on continued expansion, and the segment recently launched a new biobased paint remover, and signed two new customers, Rev'it, a motorcycle apparel brand, and B&#228;chli, a Swiss outdoor retailer. For the NW&amp;FT and FW segments, management assesses that the markets will improve slightly during the year, and highlights the recent Nordic Swan Ecolabel for OrganoWood Nowa as a sales driver in FW, and a strong project portfolio in NW&amp;FT.</p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000">Company valuation</font></h3><p>The company is currently trading at 2.1-1.6x '25e-'27e EV/Sales vs. peers at 3.4-1.4x. As our long-term view of the company remains largely unchanged, we reiterate our fair value range of SEK 2.0-3.0.</p></td></tr></table>

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