Information från ABG Sundal Collier

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OrganoClick - Better opex counters weaker sales

13 februari 2025

<a id="bm-comp-40137254-b54c-44d5-9b5d-8f46f3feb377" name="bm-comp-40137254-b54c-44d5-9b5d-8f46f3feb377" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="40137254-b54c-44d5-9b5d-8f46f3feb377" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Sales -10% vs. ABGSCe, but EBIT only -2% on better opex control</li><li>GC&amp;MP to continue growth; NW&amp;FT, FW markets to improve slightly</li><li>SEK 6.2m total liquidity vs. R12m FCF of SEK -14.1m</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-300d0861-26c4-482a-9e9d-c99e44d885dc" name="bm-comp-300d0861-26c4-482a-9e9d-c99e44d885dc" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="300d0861-26c4-482a-9e9d-c99e44d885dc" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000"><strong>Q4 results</strong></font></h3><p><font color="#000000">Sales were SEK 21m (-10% vs. ABGSC 24m), -23% y-o-y (-23% organic), while adj. EBIT was -7m (-2% vs. ABGSC -7m) for a margin of -32% (ABGSC -28%). The sales miss was largely offset by better opex control, which explains the in-line EBIT, but the gross margin did suffer from the lower volumes, as well as an unspecified correction of inventory obsolescence. The lower than expected sales were driven by all three segments, with NW&amp;FT and FW continuing to contract y-o-y, while growth slowed in GC&amp;MP. The company produced lease adj. FCF of 0m, and ended the quarter with a cash balance of 0.5m vs. R12m FCF -14.1m, as well as unutilised credit facilities of SEK 5.7m.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000"><strong>Estimates and outlook</strong></font></h3><p><font color="#000000">On the Q4 numbers alone, '25e-'26e sales come down 2% and '25e adj. EBIT comes down by SEK 0.2m. Management commented that 2025 has started in line with its plan for all the businesses. Its assessment is that the market in NW&amp;FT and FW will improve slightly during 2025, while GC&amp;MP will continue to grow.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3"><font color="#000000"><strong>Company valuation</strong></font></h3><p><font color="#000000">The share is down 6% L3M (vs. peers +11%, Swedish small cap +5%), and is currently trading at <font style="color:#000000;">2.6-2.0</font>x '24e-'26e EV/Sales on our pre-report estimates.</font></p></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-dc070b36-6e53-4f96-b3a4-ca185e00b998" name="bm-comp-dc070b36-6e53-4f96-b3a4-ca185e00b998" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="dc070b36-6e53-4f96-b3a4-ca185e00b998" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-bfc74458-b3a3-4930-bab6-c090152e922b" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Deviation table</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="bfc74458-b3a3-4930-bab6-c090152e922b" bm-img-original-height="610" bm-img-original-width="603" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/85379_96d80164-433f-4c9a-874f-a85bd787a53e.svg" bm-img-width-hint="82.94%" id="bm-id-bfc74458-b3a3-4930-bab6-c090152e922b" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/85379_96d80164-433f-4c9a-874f-a85bd787a53e_603.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/85379_96d80164-433f-4c9a-874f-a85bd787a53e.svg" width="603" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier Estimates, Company Data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

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