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Careium - Improved GM supports EBIT beat

13 februari 2025

<a id="bm-comp-fe492a11-02bb-42ff-bb30-6d5b501bf017" name="bm-comp-fe492a11-02bb-42ff-bb30-6d5b501bf017" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="fe492a11-02bb-42ff-bb30-6d5b501bf017" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q4 sales -1% below our ests. at SEK 229m, for 12.5% org. growth</li><li>EBIT +14% vs. ABGSCe, and FCF in line at SEK 17m</li><li>Trading at 9x '25e EV/EBITA</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-e5b45e0e-5eb9-450f-8a2d-5c386517809e" name="bm-comp-e5b45e0e-5eb9-450f-8a2d-5c386517809e" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="e5b45e0e-5eb9-450f-8a2d-5c386517809e" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">Q4: Product sales and GM better than expected</h3><p>Careium delivered sales of SEK 229m (-1% vs ABGSCe 232m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth ex. FX of 13% (-2pp vs ABGSCe 15%). Segment wise, service sales was SEK 166m (-7% vs ABGSCe 177m), and product sales was SEK 63m (16% vs ABGSCe 54m). The gross margin increased to 44% (2pp vs ABGSCe 42%), 1.7pp q-o-q and 4.2pp y-o-y), on a favourable regional and product mix. Opex came in at SEK -75m (0% vs ABGSCe -75m) on good cost control. EBIT amounted to SEK 27m (14% vs ABGSCe 23m), for a margin of 11.6% (ABGSCe 10%, 9.5% in Q3'23). Sales were negatively impacted by the infrastructure delays in the Nordics (-7% y-o-y), offset by positive development in other regions, with a notable growth of 18% y-o-y in the UK &amp; Ireland. Product sales for the group grew by 39% y-o-y.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Cash flow in line with expectations</h3><p><font color="#212529">FCF in Q4 amounted to SEK 17</font><font color="#212529">m, roughly in line with ABGSCe of SEK 18m. This is a decrease of SEK</font> 19<font color="#212529">m y-o-y (36m Q4'23) and an increase of SEK 13</font><font color="#212529">m q-o-q (3.3m Q3'24), with a change in WC of SEK -7</font><font color="#212529">m. Note that FCF in Q4'23 was positively impacted by a NWC release of SEK 19m. Careium comments that NWC has increased as a % of sales in FY'24, on increased financial lease liabilities.</font></p><h3 class="bm-h3">Valuation and conference call details</h3><p><font color="#212529">On our pre-Q4 estimates, the share is trading at 8.8</font>x-7.3<font color="#212529">x &#8216;25-'26e EV/EBITA adj. In addition, we expect more details about Q4 on the conference call at 13.00 CET</font>. Link to the webcast <a href="https://www.youtube.com/live/tmjz9KQvkCw" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><br /><table id="bm-img-8135db67-f16b-491c-b844-1a343226cc68" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Deviation table</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="8135db67-f16b-491c-b844-1a343226cc68" bm-img-original-height="668" bm-img-original-width="683" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/85410_73773522-a58f-4a9e-9bd9-0960784bf9c7.svg" bm-img-width-hint="93.95%" id="bm-id-8135db67-f16b-491c-b844-1a343226cc68" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/85410_73773522-a58f-4a9e-9bd9-0960784bf9c7_683.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/85410_73773522-a58f-4a9e-9bd9-0960784bf9c7.svg" width="683" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

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