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Eolus Vind - No big surprises, new targets for '25-'27

13 februari 2025

<a id="bm-comp-695d9792-d101-4725-84e2-485fde561499" name="bm-comp-695d9792-d101-4725-84e2-485fde561499" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="695d9792-d101-4725-84e2-485fde561499" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><ul><li>Q4 EBIT SEK 437m (vs. ABSCe 495m)</li><li>No big surprises, Centennial Flats main Q4 contributor</li><li>Financial targets for 2025-2027 set</li></ul></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-b8c2328a-d470-4ac4-a9ef-881f4d3151bd" name="bm-comp-b8c2328a-d470-4ac4-a9ef-881f4d3151bd" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="b8c2328a-d470-4ac4-a9ef-881f4d3151bd" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><h3 class="bm-h3">In line report</h3><p>Eolus reported net sales of SEK 729 (vs. ABGSCe 725m) and EBIT of SEK 437 (-12% ABGSCe, -14% vs. cons.) for a margin of 59%. No big surprises in the Q4 report in terms of numbers. The results were largely driven by the milestone payment from the solar and battery storage project Centennial Flats in the US, which we had in our estimates. The company also announced a dividend of SEK 2.25 per share, flat compared to 2023.</p><h3 class="bm-h3">New financial targets for 2025-2027</h3><p>Given that the report was rather in line with expectations we do not expect any major changes to consensus estimates. In addition, Eolus updated its financial targets for 2025-2027 in the Q4 report. The company has removed its sales targets in terms of MW and instead set an operating profit target of at least SEK 1,400m in total for the period 2025-2027. We have SEK ~1,200m in our estimates for '25e-'27e. However, it should be noted that our estimates are based on Eolus' projects under construction and projects in late stage portfolio (total ~2.2 GW) and therefore do not include Eolus' projects in early stage (~24 GW, ~90% of Eolus' total portfolio). The company also increased its ROE target to &gt;15% per fiscal year on average (10% previously).</p><h3 class="bm-h3">Valuation</h3><p>The share has returned +22% L3M (vs. OMXSALLS +7%), and is currently trading 6x-4x P/E '24e-'26e on our pre-report estimates. The company will host a <a href="https://eolus.events.inderes.com/q4-report-2024/register" target="_blank">conference call</a> of the Q4 results at 10:00 CET.</p></td></tr></table><a id="bm-comp-1d1e775d-7456-4e06-a923-2989edcc9421" name="bm-comp-1d1e775d-7456-4e06-a923-2989edcc9421" class="BMCustomAnchor"></a><table><tr><td bm-component-id="1d1e775d-7456-4e06-a923-2989edcc9421" style="vertical-align: top; width:100.000000%;"><table id="bm-img-6e57a73b-fdc2-48b5-ae7e-091284d2f376" class="bm-img-table xslt-img-empty xslt-img-include"><tr><td class="xslt-img-caption">Deviation table</td></tr><tr><td><img bm-img-encrypt="6e57a73b-fdc2-48b5-ae7e-091284d2f376" bm-img-original-height="317" bm-img-original-width="871" bm-img-svg="image:image_upload/85428_cb5a1e90-6078-4aa9-a9ee-03c1b383428f.svg" bm-img-width-hint="100%" id="bm-id-6e57a73b-fdc2-48b5-ae7e-091284d2f376" src="https://abgsc.bluematrix.com/images/image_upload/85428_cb5a1e90-6078-4aa9-a9ee-03c1b383428f_727.png" svg="/nas/web/clients/abgsc/images/image_upload/85428_cb5a1e90-6078-4aa9-a9ee-03c1b383428f.svg" width="727" alt="" title="" /></td></tr><tr><td class="xslt-img-source">Source: ABG Sundal Collier Estimates, FactSet Estimates, Company Data</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

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